Dust aside, biomass burning contributes most to PM2.5-led air pollution countrywide. Households are bigger emitters than farmers. Industry emissions come next
Air pollution is a pervasive issue in India, with the Indo-Gangetic Plain suffering the most severe consequences. The severity of this problem is underscored by recent rankings that place Delhi, Kolkata and Mumbai among the world’s 10 most polluted cities. Mumbai’s air quality, for instance, has steadily deteriorated in the last five years, with its air quality index (AQI) frequently surpassing 200, indicating poor conditions, and sometimes even 300, signifying very poor air quality. This trend raises urgent questions about the root causes of this escalating air pollution and why it remains unmitigated.
Air pollution is a pervasive issue in India, with the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP)suffering the most severe Consequences. The severity of this problem is underscored by recent rankings that place Delhi, Kolkata, and Mumbai among the world, ‘s 10 most polluted cities. Mumbai, ‘s air quality for instance, has steadily deteriorated in the last five years, with its air quality index (AQI) Frequently surpassing 200, indicating poor Conditions, and sometimes even 300, signifying very poor air quality, This trend raises urgent questions about the root causes of this escalating air pollutions and why it remains unmitigated.
Colleagues and I in a comprehensive study put together data From Various Sources to develop an inventory of air pollutants in India, focusing on PM2.5, which are particles less than 2.5 microns in size and a primary concern for the country. High exposure to various PM2.5 is detrimental to health, affecting various bodily systems, particularly the respiratory system and increasing the risk of diseases such as cancer and cardiovascular ailments.
Our research indicates that India emits approximately 5.2 million tones’ of PM2.5 annually, not accounting for bust form land and construction. Astonishingly,82 0/0 of this comes from biomass burning and industrial activities.
Biomass burning is the leading cause of PM2.5 emissions in India, with residential fuel and burning of agricultural residue accounting for over half of these emissions. The reason biomass burning contributes such a massive share is that their emissions are unfiltered. Unlike automobiles and industries where some pollution control devices are used, biomass cookstoves and open burning in fields emit all their pollutants unconstrained into the air.
Some notable sources of biomass-related emissions are:
Cooking | Biomass-firewood, dung cakes -residues and charcoal – is the primary cooking fuel around 500 million people, mainly in rural areas, contributing 38.7 /0 of PM2.5 emissions. Although programmers like PM Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) have reduced biomass usage, the transition to cleaner fuels must be expedited to significantly cut down on both indoor and outdoor air pollution.
Heating | Often overlooked, biomass used for heating especially during winters, is a significant pollution source. Two-thirds of Indian households -about 860 million people in rural and urban areas – rely on biomass for heating. Emissions from this source exceed those from the power and transport sectors. so if the Delhi government wants to reduce air pollution during winter. It should ensure there is no burning construction and spraying water on roads.
Crop Residue Burundi | This practice Contributed about 7/ of PM2.5 emissions. Equal to the emissions form all of India, s vehicles. About 100 million tones of crop residues are burnt year. Whit a third of this occurred within a 30-day period across Punjab, Haryana. Up and Rajasthan in October and November. This intense burning significantly esca-lates pollution levels in cities like Delhi to hazardous pollution days.
It is essential to underscore that a bulk of biomass used for heating and crop residue burning takes place during winter. This. along with adverse meteorological conditions in IGP. Pushes the pollution to dangerous IeveI in winter.
Industry invisible | Industries. often neglected in discussions on air pollution, are the second-largest source of PM2.5, contributing 29% of the emissions and are the leading cause of pollution in cities like Mumbai and Kolkata. While larger industries have adopted adequate pollution controls, countless smaller enterprises have not. Sectors like brick kilns, metal, food processing, and agro-based industries are some of the key ones that need stringent oversight.
Likewise, the power sector, accounting for 8% of PM2.5, must adhere to emission norms, as about 60% of power plants still fail to meet the strict standards set in 2015.
Automobile Focus: Vehicles, which have been a focal point of pollution control efforts over the past two decades, contribute only 7% of PM2.5 emissions. While in cities, this number could be a little higher, emissions from biomass. This is precisely why vehicle restriction schemes like odd-even have a minimal impact on improving air quality in cities like Delhi.
The analysis clearly demonstrates the need for substantial actions to shift households away from biomass fuels for cooking and heating through programmes such as PMUY. Under the Sustainable Development Goals, India has committed to providing clean fuel to every household by 2030; achieving this target would be the biggest action in controlling air pollution. Furthermore, the burning of crop residues must not be tolerated. Both incentives and penalities should be used to eliminate this practice as this will bring the quickest result on air quality. Lastly, there must be a concerted effort to decrease industrial pollution throught rigorous monitoring and enforcement. These strategies must take precedence as they represent the primary sources of air pollution.
ArticleThe transformative potential of decarbonisation is that it can meet socio-economic goals better than current development pathways.
The Paris Agreement that India signed alongside 195 other countries in 2015 came into effect on 4 November 2016. Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement refers to the goal of achieving ‘Net Zero’ through a “balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century, on the basis of equity, and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty”.
To fulfil the obligations under the Paris Agreement, in November 2021, at the 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) in Glasgow, Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged that India would reach net zero emissions by 2070 and meet 50 per cent of its electricity requirements from renewable sources by the year 2030. In the words of Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, “India is pioneering a new model of economic development that could avoid the carbon-intensive approaches that many countries have pursued in the past – and provide a blueprint for other developing economies”. Clearly, in the eyes of the world, India is in a position where it can act as a leader in climate action and pave the way for that development that follows an alternative model to that of the industrialised western countries and China. We can demonstrate that the process of economic growth need not come at the cost of our environment or indeed the health of our citizens.
To safeguard the well-being of humanity, Article 2 of the Paris Agreement refers to two temperature thresholds. While the globe cannot, under any circumstances, cross 2 degrees Celsius (C) of warming, the Agreement binds countries to attempt as far as possible to stay within 1.5C. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made it clear what staying within 1.5C would entail. Global carbon emissions have to drop drastically – from their current level of 36 gigatons each year, to zero or near-zero by the middle of this century (i.e. around the year 2050). The IPCC makes it clear that this target is achievable through a combination of reducing fossil fuel use and increasing the speed of carbon removal from the atmosphere. More importantly, it also makes clear that the consequences of crossing 1.5C will result in unbearable impacts on humans and nature.
The cost of not achieving Net Zero
These impacts are not things that will only occur far in the future as conditions that our grandchildren and their children will experience; they are already manifesting. India has warmed by around 0.7C since 1900. This is not evenly distributed – some cities like Kolkata have seen 4.5C of average temperature rise due to a combination of urban heat island effects and changes in the amount of vegetation in and around the city. The Himalayas, which are a highly vulnerable landscape that provides incalculable ecosystem services such as delivering melt water to perennial rivers and ensuring that rain-bearing winds from the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean reach a condensation point before crossing over to China, underwent maximum warming of 2.5C from 1950 to 1999 and could experience a maximum temperature rise of 9C by 2100. This would be accompanied by decades of catastrophic flooding in the Gangetic region and eventually water scarcity in the entire northern half of India. Indian Ocean cyclones are increasing in volume and intensity, while the historically calm Arabian Sea has started producing cyclones more frequently than before, as citizens in Mumbai and the rest of the Western Coast of India can attest to.
The impact of the warming on the economy and livelihoods is equally alarming. By one estimate, if global warming crosses 2C, India’s GDP will be 3 per cent lower in 2100 than it would have been otherwise. If it crosses 4C, India will lose around 13 per cent of GDP. However, these estimates are limited to the loss in labour productivity. Global warming also causes and exacerbates extreme weather events such as cyclones and heatwaves. Between 1998 and 2007, India lost $20 billion to climate change impacts. Those losses more than doubled over the next decade – we lost $45 billion between 2007-2017, with the agriculture sector being the worst hit.
If the cost of these weather extremes is included, India’s GDP is already 25 per cent lower than it could have been, and it could lose up to 90 per cent by the end of the century. By 2050, climate-caused economic loss to India could total $6 trillion, according to a Deloitte report in 2021. A separate estimate for ‘slow-onset’ losses such as coastal erosion and flooding indicates that India could lose $4 trillion to flooding through the rest of this century, with an additional 28.6 million people exposed to flood risk across six Indian port cities – Chennai, Kochi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Surat and Visakhapatnam. Finally, climate will also impact jobs. It is estimated that India could account for about 34 million of the projected 80 million global job losses from heat stress by 2030. The Reserve Bank of India’s latest report suggests that up to 4.5 per cent of India’s GDP could be at risk by 2030 owing to lost labour hours from extreme heat and humidity. These trends suggest terrifying implications if they are allowed to continue.
If the cost of these weather extremes is included, India’s GDP is already 25 per cent lower than it could have been, and it could lose up to 90 per cent by the end of the century. By 2050, climate-caused economic loss to India could total $6 trillion, according to a Deloitte report in 2021. A separate estimate for ‘slow-onset’ losses such as coastal erosion and flooding indicates that India could lose $4 trillion to flooding through the rest of this century, with an additional 28.6 million people exposed to flood risk across six Indian port cities – Chennai, Kochi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Surat and Visakhapatnam. Finally, climate will also impact jobs. It is estimated that India could account for about 34 million of the projected 80 million global job losses from heat stress by 2030. The Reserve Bank of India’s latest report suggests that up to 4.5 per cent of India’s GDP could be at risk by 2030 owing to lost labour hours from extreme heat and humidity. These trends suggest terrifying implications if they are allowed to continue.
Technology is available and growth will be exponential
Despite this urgency, the misconception persists that Net Zero is unrealistic. Some energy historians point out that neither coal, oil nor natural gas managed to cross more than 50 per cent of energy market share in their first 60 years, and conclude that renewable energy cannot dominate the market within 30 years. These historians ignore the historical and present nature of energy markets, the speed of technological development and the already-emerging future trajectory of energy markets that promise to be cleaner.
The past two decades have seen a revolution in renewable energy technologies – solar costs have fallen 90 per cent over the past decade. Building new solar power in India is now cheaper than building a new coal plant, and is quickly becoming cheaper than running existing coal plants. While renewable energy needs electricity storage to be as reliable as coal power, Moody’s projects that wind and solar, including storage cost, will be competitive with coal in India in 2025.
This itself is driven by the battery/ storage revolution coming to India, which could drop costs by 60 per cent in the next decade. This is a continuation of the global trend, which has seen Li-ion batteries become 97 per cent cheaper since 1991, with further room to drop. In addition to making electricity generation cheaper, the battery revolution would drop the cost of electric transportation in India – in about five years, electric vehicles (EVs) are estimated to account for 15 per cent of India’s scooter market, with the share doubling in about 10 years. The savings on fuel imports for transportation will be immense – USD 2.5 trillion by 2047 if the government’s (admittedly ambitious) targets are met. Investment in the battery producing capacity of the Indian industry can further generate huge income for the country.
Likewise, green hydrogen, the key to decarbonising heavy industries, is at a tipping point. Like EVs, electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen in areas without access to cheap electricity has been in practice since the 1950s. In fact, one of India’s first urea plants – the Fertiliser Corporation of India’s Nangal plant – employed electrolysis to produce hydrogen until it switched to hydrocarbons in the 1970s due to shortages of power in the Bhakra grid. But with cheaper renewable energy, green hydrogen is now a reality.
Crucial to remember is that even if India lacks certain technologies, for instance that used in creating commercially viable sodium ion batteries (SIBs), the Paris Agreement can be leveraged for technology transfer, and countries have started to cooperate on technology development.
Transition is possible and desirable in India
If we already have the technology, why are we not decarbonising yet? In a broad sense, we are. Current renewables capacity addition globally is way above the International Energy Agency’s predictions from even five years ago, a trend clearly visible in India. For instance, renewables accounted for 4 per cent of new capacity addition in India in 2001; between 1 April 2020 and 31 March 2023, they accounted for over 82 per cent.
Likewise, India has embarked on ambitious missions to competitively produce EVs, batteries, photovoltaic cells and hydrogen fuel. We are at the beginning of a revolution comparable to computers and the internet in the 1970s and 1980s, or smartphone ownership in the 2000s. The good news is that this transition is a win-win for India in terms of growth and jobs.
The other side of the question with respect to decarbonisation is what to do with existing energy generators that are major sources of carbon emissions, i.e., coal power plants. A coal plant’s operational life is 30-35 years. The Central Electricity Authority’s Tariff Regulations actually specify the ‘useful life’ of a coal plant is 25 years. If we adhere to this specification, a coal power plant built in India today should – on a purely technical/ technological basis – be retired by 2050 at the latest. But in practice, the lives of these plants are extended and regulators approve tariffs for older plants at their discretion – a discretion that has expanded to become a standard practice. To keep a plant going beyond 30 years, it needs significant repairs and upgrades, which are effectively a new capital investment at ratepayer cost. Beyond the useful life, coal power plants’ cost of operation exceeds the value they generate. Considering that the cost effectiveness of installing around-the-clock renewables is already competing with that of new coal plants, investments in new coal plants could rapidly become ‘non-performing assets’ (NPAs). A recent study has estimated that even in the existing coal fleet, the non-performing (‘stranded’) assets could be up to $40 billion.
No wonder the government recently put future coal expansion on an indefinite pause. It has already covered half the distance towards the inevitable – a deadline to shut down all coal power in India. But the challenge is a just transition – a transition that will compensate and strengthen workers and communities whose livelihoods depend on coal, oil and gas.
In sum, there are technologies that are ready to deploy right now, for which the barrier is neither technical nor cost, but policy priorities. But these policy challenges are a cause for action, not panic. No one expects us to reach Net Zero tomorrow. But the right policies need to be implemented now so that they can take full effect over 30 years.
Co-benefits are high
If we see decarbonisation as a technology-and-policy question, it requires decisions about the allocation of costs and benefits. The fossil fuel economy has delivered many benefits, including national development. Decarbonisation will bring some costs, especially for those who are dependent on fossil fuels for jobs and growth and those currently able to access cheap energy. But there has been evidence for a while that this development is not well distributed and directed.
For instance, the externalities of fossil fuel energy are disproportionately borne by the most vulnerable. Communities around coal mines and power plants are exposed to horrifying levels of air pollution, which in turn cause lung and heart disease. Cement and steel manufacturing similarly combine broad development benefits with high health impacts on workers and nearby communities. More Indians own cars today than 50 years ago, but our city air has become unbreathable. A recent Lancet-published study puts a shocking number on “premature deaths and morbidity attributable to air pollution” – US$ 36.8 billion in economic losses to India (or 1.4 per cent of GDP) in 2019 alone.
When people emphasise the cost of transition, they are missing the benefits – to health, energy access, employment, and domestic industry. This is true of those who believe development is fine as it is, as well as those who argue that development is a bad word. The transformative potential of decarbonisation is that it can meet socio-economic goals better than current development pathways. Similar to fossil fuel growth, the investment has to be made upfront, but unlike with fuel-based energy, with renewables, it is the benefits that will accumulate over decades rather than costs and detriments.
Conclusion
If we act on these realities, India can move beyond asking for a few million in climate finance and unlock trillions of dollars in investments. The IMF indicates $3 trillion in climate investment opportunities in India through 2030. Deloitte considers that the right policies can turn India’s projected $6 trillion loss from climate change into a $11 trillion return on climate investments, including by exporting decarbonisation to the developing world. Benefits from investment into climate-allied industries, such as those that produce EVs, batteries, solar panels and hydrogen, could push returns on investment even beyond Deloitte’s predictions.
Implicit in these estimates is that India moves decisively on climate change in every sector of the economy. In the following articles in this series, we shall outline sector-specific roadmaps to achieve carbon neutrality or net zero emissions.
The year 2023 has witnessed significant upheavals in the Himalayas. The Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Sikkim that swept away humans, houses, bridges and a dam was the latest in a series of unsettling reports throughout the year. First came the sinking of Joshimath but it was soon overshadowed by devastating losses in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh during the monsoon season; unprecedented rainfall and widespread landslides caused significant loss of life and property, particularly in Himachal.
But these are only the first days of climate change. As global warming accelerates, we will see an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. In the Himalayas, this will translate to cloudbursts and accelerated glacial melt. These will lead to more landslides and avalanches, while glacial lakes will grow in both size and number.
Paired with the region’s elevated seismic risk, we see a perfect storm brewing in the Himalayas. The failure to consider this interplay of geological, hydrological, and meteorological hazards in the scramble to construct hydropower projects resulted in the tragedy in Sikkim.
As the complete picture of how this tragedy unfolded emerges, we know the following:
● Around midnight of October 3-4, the South Lhonak Lake’s embankment broke, creating a GLOF. This lake has tripled in size in the last three decades due to rapid melting of Lhonak glaciers, in turn due to global warming.
● An earthquake of 6.2 magnitude occurred in western Nepal at 14:51 hrs on October 3, which was felt even in Delhi. Scientists are investigating whether this earthquake could have led to a landslide/avalanche or weakened the lake’s embankment, starting a GLOF.
● Sikkim also received high rainfall from October 2 through to October 5. As per ICIMOD, on the night of October 3, there was heavy rainfall near the lake. This, too, could have caused the GLOF.
About 50km downstream of South Lhonak Lake is the Teesta III dam at Chungthang. This massive rock-filled dam is Sikkim’s biggest hydel project. According to Teesta III chairman, on October 3, at 23:58 hrs, operators were informed by Indo-Tibetan Border Police about the GLOF. By 00:10 hours on October 4, a swell of water flooded the dam’s reservoir lake and washed away most of the dam before they could open the sluice gates.
● The dam’s spillway was not designed to accommodate high flow due to GLOF, and there was no functional early warning system for GLOF at South Lhonak Lake.
● The dam break led to massive flooding downstream, destroying roads, bridges, water and power lines, inundating towns and districts. Around 50 have died, and scores are missing. The economic losses will be thousands of crores. The destroyed dam itself cost about ₹14,000 crore. This dam was also hit by the 2011 earthquake, which destroyed a large part of the construction and claimed the lives of 40 workers.
● Wenow know that none of the early warning sensors installed for the critical glacial lakes in Sikkim in 2013, 2016 and even last month survived long enough to forewarn residents downstream.
● This, even though GLOF was identified as a significant risk to Teesta III. Back in 2005, the carrying capacity study of Teesta basin – based on which the environment ministry cleared Teesta III – had noted that the region was “quite susceptible to disastrous hazards due to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods”.
Multiple hazards thus were recognised for Teesta III, but risks were neither adequately assessed nor a mitigation strategy designed. This is how this highrisk project received clearance from multiple regulating agencies despite opposition from the local community and environmental groups. At the time, even clearance conditions did not mandate an early warning system or modifications in the dam’s design, to account for the possibility of a GLOF.
This problem is not unique to Teesta III. Big infrastructure projects in the Himalayas are neither vetted through a stringent risk assessment process nor designed to mitigate multiple risks and eventualities. As climate change continues, extreme events will become ever more common. The only way to prepare for these is by factoring in all risks at the project design stage and creating institutions that can make independent decisions based on risk assessments.
In this context, we must urgently re-evaluate the Environmental Impact Assessment and the Environment Clearance procedures. The existing EIA/EC framework has repeatedly shown inadequacies in handling high-risk projects. EIA reports often overlook comprehensive risk evaluations, and impacts of climate change are rarely factored in. Moreover, impact assessments are absent of advanced methodologies and technologies.
The existing EC approach must be equipped to address the challenges and unpredictability of the climate crisis, especially in the Himalayas. Additionally, for objectivity in the decision-making process, it is equally essential to establish independent bodies to conduct such assessments to inform decisions. For the Himalayas, we need a Trans-Himalayan Environmental Assessment and ManagementAgency staffed with experts from Himalayan states and UTs.
In the Himalayas 87 hydroelectric projects are operational, 30 are under construction with more on the horizon. The task is twofold: ensure these mega projects don’t exacerbate environmental problems, and then, safeguard valuable assets against multiple threats. This is the challenge that demands balance.
India’s presidency has done something unprecedented: it has brought the Global South into the spotlight—where the world’s majority live, the challenges they face, and the opportunities they offer for a sustainable and prosperous world.
In a world marked by the rivalries of great powers and the urgent need for collaborative action, the G20 has become a stage where realpolitik unfolds in real time. And yet, this forum—which accounts for 85 per cent of global GDP, 75 per cent of trade and an overwhelming majority of climate-warming pollutants—offers hope for cooperative action to shape the global future. India’s G20 presidency, with its mix of geopolitical challenges and transformative potential, marks an important moment in the forum’s history.
India has received this presidency during a particularly tumultuous period in world politics. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has strained relations between the West and Russia to levels not seen since the Cold War, if not worse. Likewise, Sino-US relations are historically low, and Sino-Indian ties have hit a nadir. These conflicts, coupled with the lingering economic effects of Covid-19 and the increasing frequency of climate disasters, have started to hurt global economies.
Given this backdrop, the absence of a consensus document from recent ministerial meetings under India’s G-20 is not unexpected. There are doubts about whether the current summit in Delhi can yield a joint communiqué, given the substantial divide between Russia, China, and developed countries. However, the current divide does not overshadow India’s achievements during its presidency. India’s term at the helm of the G-20 will be remembered for its agenda of challenging the status quo and reimagining global cooperation.
India’s presidency has done something unprecedented: it has brought the Global South into the spotlight—where the world’s majority live, the challenges they face, and the opportunities they offer for a sustainable and prosperous world. By advocating for the African Union’s inclusion in the G-20, India is reshaping the conversation, ensuring that the voices of the Global South are not just heard but amplified. Beyond dialogue, the call for channelling more funds to these regions for climate action and sustainable development goals marks a significant shift in priorities. India has provided these nations with a space at the proverbial table, one that the future G-20 can’t ignore.
Demanding Financial Fairness
Often referred to as the ‘Finance G-20,’ India’s presidency has explicitly called for a fundamental reform to establish a fairer global financial system that benefits all. The stark reality of the current international financial arrangement is that poor African countries pay four times more interest on loans than the US and up to eight times more than wealthy European countries. India’s concrete proposals on debt crisis management, multilateral development bank reforms, and international financial architecture have accelerated a long-overdue conversation on creating a more equitable financial future.
Climate Action & Accountability
Under India’s guidance, climate action has gained renewed momentum. Emphasising lifestyle impacts on climate, India has underscored the importance of individual responsibility and people-centred solutions. This is especially important considering that the wealthiest 1% of the world’s population is responsible for twice as much carbon dioxide emissions as the poorer 50% of the world. Through initiatives like Mission LiFE, India has challenged the developed world’s consumption and pollution habits, pressing for a democratisation of climate action.
Besides, India’s G-20 will also be remembered for its inclusivity within and outside the country. In line with its presidency theme—’Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam,’ or ‘One Earth, One Family, One Future’—India has conducted over 220 meetings in 60 cities in all 28 states and 8 union territories, involving voices from all corners of the globe and within India itself. It has also showcased India in a new light as a diverse and dynamic nation eager to bridge divides and foster collaboration.
One important thing to remember is that in international diplomacy, progress is at a canter rather than a gallop, built around continuity. So a presidency alone is not sufficient to push an agenda. India, therefore, will have to work with other countries to get its transformative agenda implemented over time. Fortunately, India’s presidency is the second in a line of four consecutive presidencies allotted to emerging economies—an occurrence not slated to happen for another two decades. India therefore, has a great opportunity to work closely with Brazil and South Africa, the next two presidencies, to advance the agendas of the Global South.
India’s G-20 presidency will be remembered not just for its momentary milestones but for its audacity to envision and shape a more equitable and sustainable global future. Under India’s guidance, the roadmap appears promising, with pathways to financial equity, digital inclusivity, and environmental sustainability shining brightly. And while the ink may still be wet on its term, the true implications of India’s presidency will unfold in the years to come.
Extreme rainfall contributes to severe flooding, but the bigger problem is the mismanagement of the stormwater system.
As the deluge subsides and the city dusts itself off, we find ourselves once more asking how we got here. Last weekend, Delhi witnessed over 100 mm of rainfall each day, leading to extensive waterlogging, road cave-ins, collapsed homes, and gridlocked traffic. As citizens struggled, Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal quickly attributed the crisis to extreme rainfall, contending that the city’s drainage system wasn’t designed to handle such an “unprecedented” downpour. The Public Works Department (PWD) concurred, pointing out that Delhi’s drainage network can carry a maximum of 50 mm of rainfall in 24 hours and is in dire need of major reconstruction. But are these assertions accurate? Is the issue of waterlogging solely a consequence of extreme rain and inadequate infrastructure, or are there other factors contributing to this annual predicament? It is vital to scrutinize these assertions lest they be accepted as unquestionable truth.
Let’s consider the rainfall. Was the downpour on the 8th and 9th of July truly “unprecedented”? Rainfall data from the past 30 years reveals an increase in the frequency of heavy (64.5-115.5 mm of rain in 24 hours) and very heavy (115.6-204.4 mm) rainfall events in the city. In fact, in the last few years, there has been an upsurge in incidences of heavy rain. As we all have short memories, it is worth remembering that in 2021 Delhi had seven episodes of heavy and very heavy rains that caused similar levels of flooding. Moreover, the total rainfall in 2021 was 1512 mm — more than double the usual amount and the second highest on record. Hence, the most recent rains cannot truly be considered “unprecedented” for the city. Delhi has been experiencing them increasingly over the last decade, and these extreme rain events will continue due to global warming. The problem is despite this knowledge, the Delhi government has taken little action. Instead, it tells us now that the problem is the city’s old, creaking drainage network. But is Delhi’s drainage system so inadequate that it can handle only 50 mm of rainfall? Consequently, does Delhi need to rebuild its entire drainage network, given the increasing frequency of heavy rain?
To answer this question, I will refer to the most recent Drainage Master Plan (DMP) for the National Capital Territory of Delhi, prepared and submitted by IIT-Delhi in 2018. Despite being rejected by the Delhi government in 2021 as “non-actionable” and “too theoretical,” this report is our most reliable source of recent information and modelling results. So, what does this report contain that led the state government to dismiss it?
First of all, contrary to the Delhi government’s perspective, the DMP does not advocate for multi-crore mega-projects to construct a new drainage system for the city. Instead, it highlights mismanagement as the core issue and firmly recommends improvements in the existing drainage network to alleviate flooding. The main findings and recommendations of the DMP, which the Delhi government termed as theoretical, are as follows:
The rampant encroachment of stormwater drains has reduced the carrying capacity, and hence special drives should be initiated to remove them.
Authorities routinely dump sewage into storm drains, which heightens siltation. Additionally, residents often connect their rooftop drains to the sewage network due to a lack of local-level stormwater drains in the city. Prioritizing the construction of colony-level storm drains should help address this problem.
Serious efforts should be made to stop the rampant disposal of garbage, road dust and construction waste into storm drains.
A considerable amount is spent on pre-monsoon drain cleaning each year, yet no transparent verification system exists. A certification system should be implemented for the desilting exercise.
Utilities are often laid inside storm drains, and pillars for elevated roads/metros are built within them, severely reducing the drains’ capacity. These constructions should be prohibited.
The city’s drains are poorly designed, poorly aligned and badly constructed. Their efficiency can be significantly enhanced by improving the slope, alignment and cross-sections.
Many water bodies have become redundant and need to be rejuvenated to play a key role in flood reduction by acting as detention and recharge basins.
Rainwater harvesting in parks and open spaces will act as sponges and reduce flooding.
Delhi’s drainage system is owned by 11 departments/agencies. About two-thirds of the drains are under the control of the state government, about 25% are with municipal corporations, and the remaining are with central government agencies such as Delhi Development Authority. Hence, one agency should be made responsible and accountable for the drains.
It’s clear that DMP’s recommended improvement can be made swiftly and inexpensively. While DMP didn’t rule out the construction of new drainage systems to adapt to changing rainfall patterns, it advised that improvements should precede any new construction.
Despite being practical, actionable, and frankly common sense, these recommendations were rejected, ostensibly because they lacked “actionable” large-scale projects. Consequently, five years later, PWD has engaged a new consultant to develop a fresh DMP, which will take another year to compile, and who knows how many more years to implement. Until then, the citizens of Delhi should anticipate more excuses and empty promises while hoping for deliverance from the rain gods.
El Nino is likely affecting rains. From colonial times, this weather phenomenon has strongly shaped India’s political-economy. How it will impact 2023-24’s many elections will depend on govt response:
As forecasts from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) signal the arrival of El Niño, it’s clear that India faces more than mere climatic changes. This weather phenomenon, infamous for its ability to warm the climate and disrupt weather patterns, could significantly reshape India’s political landscape.
El Niño has had a significant impact on the economic and political history of India. In fact, the overlap between El Niño years and the social and political development in the country is astounding and uncannily consistent.
Historically, El Niño has correlated with severe dry spells and droughts in the Indian subcontinent, often leading to diminished summer monsoon crop yields. During the British Raj, a combination of El Niño-induced droughts and colonial government mismanagement resulted in devastating famines that killed millions. The Great Famine of 1876–1878 and 1899-1900, which together claimed more than 10 million lives, coincided with strong El Niño years. These events, in turn, significantly influenced the anti-colonial movement in the country. For example, the famine of 1876-77 triggered the first substantial economic critique of the colonial government by Dadabhai Naoroji and Romesh Chunder Dutt. It also prompted William Wedderburn and A. O. Hume to establish the Indian National Congress, providing a platform for Indians to voice their opinions on government policies such as those related to drought management. Similarly, the El Niño-induced drought of 1918 led to the Kheda Satyagraha, which elevated Mahatma Gandhi’s profile and made Sardar Patel a household name in the country. There are numerous such examples, and one can trace many more significant events in the independence movement to El Niño.
El Niño’s influence has continued to shape the political and economic landscape of post-independence India as well. The most notable agricultural development– the Green Revolution – was triggered by the devastating droughts of 1964–65 and 1965–66. Likewise, the tumultuous period of 1976-1980, which saw the downfall of Indira Gandhi, the formation of the Janata Party government, and the fall of Morarji Desai’s and Charan Singh’s governments, all unfolded during the El Niño years. The 1979 El Niño was so devastating that it caused a once-in-a-century drought and contracted the Indian economy by more than 5%. The fallout of this political upheaval was the founding of the BJP in 1980, which successfully challenged Congress and came to power within two decades. In many ways, the India in which we live today was created in 1979. The question is: what kind of impacts will the 2023-24 El Niño have?
Firstly, the monsoon has arrived late and we have so far experienced a 51% deficit in rainfall. As El Niño has already developed in May-June, the second half of the monsoon will likely witness lower rainfall, as has been the trend in the past. Overall, it is becoming clear that we will not have a “normal” monsoon this year, despite the forecast of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). In fact, the Laboratory for Experimental Hydroclimate Prediction at the University of Maryland has forecasted a significant shortfall in rains during June-September, especially in North-West and South India.
Second, El Niño in combination with global warming is predicted to hit record-high temperatures. This means that the winter of 2023 could be warmer than usual, which could impact wheat production. India is already bearing the brunt of higher temperatures and heatwaves on wheat. During 2022, the record heatwaves in February and March reduced wheat production by close to 5 million tonnes. If temperatures rise even higher during 2023-24, the impacts on wheat production could be even greater. In addition, higher temperatures will exacerbate heatwave impacts and put immense pressure on electricity grid and health infrastructure.
Lastly, if El Niño persists, as it often does for more than a year, the 2024 Kharif crops could be at risk as well. So, El Niño could potentially impact three consecutive cropping seasons. The important point is that all these seasons coincide with a critical election period in India. Over the next 12 months, India will witness nine state elections, and the general elections slated for April-May, 2024. These elections could well see the effects of El Niño subtly shaping voter sentiments. This wouldn’t be the first time such a thing would have happened as there is a long history of weather and agricultural outcomes swaying political fortunes in India.
However, while the possibility of El Niño influencing election outcomes is real, it is just one of many variables that will shape the political landscape in the coming months. Economic performance, political alliances, leadership, and social issues will also have significant sway.
Note that not all El Niño induced severe droughts have resulted in political upheaval. Effective governmental responses to these challenges have often mitigated their impacts. For instance, despite severe droughts during 1982-83 and 2015-16, governments under the leadership of Indira Gandhi and Narendra Modi, respectively, managed to alleviate the adverse effects. Therefore, the government’s response to the challenges posed by El Niño could be a critical determinant of public perception and voting patterns.
Weather, indeed, has always played an important role in shaping the political fate of India. With the arrival of El Niño, 2023-24 promises to be a pivotal year where climate and politics intertwine, as never in independent India’s history so many elections have coincided with an El Niño year. How effectively politics respond to these challenges and how voters react will shape the climate change actions in the country in the years to come.
We shouldn’t panic about summer extremes, because there are well-understood solutions. The trick is to implement them smartly
Dear Sir, I write to you from Lucknow, hoping you could answer some of my questions. 1. Are we inevitably headed towards an unlivable India due to heatwaves? 2. Do you believe Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) is imminent? Will India be forced to use this technology? 3. What can we do to adapt to increasing heat? 4. Are you optimistic about the future?
Wishing for a response.
(Name withheld)
As I was gearing up to write my monthly column, I received the above email from a young man who is clearly worried about the future. Given that his concerns are shared by millions of young people in our country, I have decided to use this platform to address them. I believe it is critical to empower the next generation with the right knowledge and perspective instead of debilitating them with fear.
Since the publication of Kim Stanley Robinson’s fictional novel The Ministry for the Future, some climate scientists have painted a doomsday scenario about deadly heatwaves in the Indian sub-continent. The book features an outlandish storyline in which a small Indian town is hit by an unsurvivable wet-bulb temperature heatwave, resulting in the death of all its inhabitants within a week. The Indian government responds by using SAI, which involves spraying sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere to mimic the cooling effect of a volcanic eruption. The plot also includes an eco-terrorist network, the “Children of Kali”, which uses drones to crash passenger jets to protest against continuing carbon emissions.
Now think about the absurdity of the plot. It is inconceivable that any government would allow its citizens to die in high heat and humidity for a week without providing assistance or transferring them to a safer location. Similarly, SAI would not immediately cool the area or save lives. It would take months before the planet starts cooling due to sulphur spray. Thus, there is no logical reason for the Indian government to spray sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere just after the deadly heatwave.
Despite these improbabilities, Robinson’s book has acquired cult status, partly due to endorsement from the likes of Barak Obama and Bill Gates, leading to the distortion in the views of impressionable minds. So my first answer to the young man is that deadly heatwaves will affect us badly, but they will not make India unlivable. We have a range of adaptation technologies and measures to deal with them. And we do not need technologies like SAI, with its enormous uncertainty and unintended consequences, to manage extreme heat. Let me explain.
It is a fact that heatwaves have increased every decade since the 1980s, and they now engulf most of the country. The worrying part is that temperature and humidity are rising together, leading to high wet-bulb temperatures. For example, the recent deaths in Kharghar in Maharashtra were due to a combination of heat and humidity. The temperature was only about 36-37°C, but the humidity was 50-60%, taking the wet-bulb temperature near 30°C, which is dangerous for manual labour and the vulnerable population outside.
Therefore, there is no doubt that we have entered an age of hot extremes when the global temperature has increased by only 1.2°C from the pre-industrial era. At 1.5°C warming, there will be more severe heatwaves. At 2°C, “deadly” heatwaves would frequently cross 35°C wet-bulb temperatures, which is the limit of human survivability. In addition, the number of days workers will have difficulty working outside will increase to 200-250 per year, which our economy cannot afford. So what do we do about this? Should we allow temperatures to keep increasing and then spray sulphur to cool the planet, or should we try to limit warming and adapt to heatwaves?
The answer is obvious: reducing carbon emissions is the cheapest and the best option to limit warming and deadly heatwaves. This we can do by deploying existing technologies – solar and wind energy, energy-efficient appliances, green buildings, electric vehicles, reducing wasteful consumption – that will also support green growth and jobs. The good news is that these technologies are picking up. For example, in 2022, 40% of global electricity was produced from non-fossil sources (25% in India). If this trend continues, we can decarbonize the global electricity supply by 2040-50, limiting warming to below 2°C.
Similarly, we can re-design our cities and buildings to adapt to heatwaves. This entails incorporating more open spaces, green areas, and water bodies into urban landscapes. Additionally, our buildings must be energy-efficient, with well-insulated walls and roofs and effective shading and ventilation systems to maintain a cool interior. But still, we will have to provide some cooling solutions to all buildings considering the high heat intensity. However, the current cooling technology, vapour-compression air conditioners, is part of the problem due to its high energy consumption, harmful refrigerants, and contribution to heat islands. Therefore, we must replace outdated technologies with a new generation of affordable and green cooling solutions.
Finally, we need a new heat code based on the wet bulb temperature to avoid incidents like Kharghar. Many regions now experience wet-bulb temperatures exceeding 30°C during certain parts of the year, and our guidelines based on dry-bulb temperature do not capture this.
I am optimistic about the future because every solution I have mentioned here is achievable. Moreover, the decarbonization trajectory globally and in India is moving in the right direction. Furthermore, I see the younger generation being more mindful and proactive about addressing the climate crisis than my generation ever was. So my advice to the young man is: be more optimistic as yours will be the first generation that will play a heroic role in saving the planet.
Ukraine war showed rich countries can find money for diversifying their own energy supply but not for global climate finance. It also showed how fossil fuel companies exploited governments’ energy security concerns
The war in Ukraine has killed thousands, displaced millions and damaged the region’s economy. But the cost of this war is being borne worldwide, especially by the poor.
The war’s most significant consequence has been an extraordinary increase in food and fuel prices. As a result, most of the world’s population has paid through its nose to procure basic food and energy.
According to a recent study, the war has doubled household energy costs globally. In the poorer parts of the world, like Sub-Saharan Africa, household energy costs increased by up to three times the global average, pushing millions back into energy poverty. The prices of fuels were so high that the total energy bill of the world reached $10 trillion for the first time in history in 2022.
Likewise, the global Food Price Index (FPI) of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) was between 154.7 to 159.7 from March to June 2022, the highest level since the index’s inception in 1990.
The combined impact of higher fuel and food costs has pushed millions of households into absolute poverty. The increase in fuel price alone is estimated to have driven 78-141 million people below the World Bank’s extreme poverty line.
But the misery of the poor has been a bonanza for the rich. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has turned out to be the biggest profiteering opportunity, especially for the fossil fuel industry.
At about $4.0 trillion, the highest ever in history. For comparison, India’s GDP in 2022 was approximately $3.5 trillion. So, a handful of companies and their shareholders made more money than the value of all goods and services produced by a country of 1.35 billion people. Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest oil company, is projected to have a net profit of $170 billion, and the six largest western oil companies made over $200 billion. The worst part is that these extra profits were paid through fossil fuel subsidies.
In 2022, government subsidies worldwide for fossil fuel consumption skyrocketed to more than $1.5 trillion, again the highest in history. The largest increase in the subsidy was in the developed world, especially Europe, which never gets tired of preaching the virtue of ending fossil fuel subsidies in the developing world to combat the climate crisis.
The most critical piece of this high price-profit-subsidy story is that some of the money made by the fossil fuel companies is currently being invested in exploring, producing and selling more coal, oil and gas in the name of “energy security”. In 2022, an estimated $560 billion was invested by the Exxon Mobile and Chevron of the world to produce enough oil and gas to blow up the 1.5 OC target of the Paris Agreement. These oil and gas projects, termed “climate bombs”, will result in the emissions of at least 125 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2), equivalent to a third of the remaining carbon budget for the 1.5 OC target. So, the fossil fuel industry has exploited the energy security anxieties unleashed by this war to further its business goals and fast forward the world towards a catastrophic climate crisis.
But the war has also shown an alternate vision of energy security which can be achieved in a much greener way if the governments of the world decide to do so. Take the case of Europe.
Europe’s most remarkable response to the war has been the unprecedented speed with which it has eliminated its dependence on Russian gas. Just before the war, nearly half of the EU’s natural gas came from Russia; today, it is about 10%. Europe achieved this by importing expensive LNG, burning more coal, and making the highest-ever investments in green energy – solar, wind, battery and electric vehicles. According to a recent estimate, these actions may have advanced the green energy transition in the EU by a few years. However, the EU and the UK had to shell out an additional half a trillion dollars for this transition in 2022.
That suggest rich countries, who dilly-dally on providing tens of billions to the developing countries as climate finance, suddenly found hundreds of billions for diversifying their energy supply. This shows that if the developed countries want, they can mobilize enough resources to accelerate their climate actions and support developing countries in mitigating and adapting to the climate crisis.
The EU was not the only region that has made record investments in green energy. According to BloombergNEF, globally, for the first time, investment in green energy technologies exceeded $1.1 trillion and was equal to the money spent on fossil fuels. The highest investments were made in China and the US; the EU was in third position. While the total investments are still way short of what is required to meet the climate goals, it is an important milestone. And this milestone has been achieved again because of energy security considerations.
So, the war has given us a glimpse of both the worst and the best scenario for the energy transition and climate crisis. It is up to us to choose which one we will pursue, climate bombs or green energy. Similarly, the world has to decide whether it wants death, poverty and profiteering or a peaceful solution to end this war. Again, the choice is ours.
