Category: Op-ed

Extreme rainfall contributes to severe flooding, but the bigger problem is the mismanagement of the stormwater system.

As the deluge subsides and the city dusts itself off, we find ourselves once more asking how we got here. Last weekend, Delhi witnessed over 100 mm of rainfall each day, leading to extensive waterlogging, road cave-ins, collapsed homes, and gridlocked traffic. As citizens struggled, Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal quickly attributed the crisis to extreme rainfall, contending that the city’s drainage system wasn’t designed to handle such an “unprecedented” downpour. The Public Works Department (PWD) concurred, pointing out that Delhi’s drainage network can carry a maximum of 50 mm of rainfall in 24 hours and is in dire need of major reconstruction. But are these assertions accurate? Is the issue of waterlogging solely a consequence of extreme rain and inadequate infrastructure, or are there other factors contributing to this annual predicament? It is vital to scrutinize these assertions lest they be accepted as unquestionable truth.

Let’s consider the rainfall. Was the downpour on the 8th and 9th of July truly “unprecedented”? Rainfall data from the past 30 years reveals an increase in the frequency of heavy (64.5-115.5 mm of rain in 24 hours) and very heavy (115.6-204.4 mm) rainfall events in the city. In fact, in the last few years, there has been an upsurge in incidences of heavy rain. As we all have short memories, it is worth remembering that in 2021 Delhi had seven episodes of heavy and very heavy rains that caused similar levels of flooding. Moreover, the total rainfall in 2021 was 1512 mm — more than double the usual amount and the second highest on record. Hence, the most recent rains cannot truly be considered “unprecedented” for the city. Delhi has been experiencing them increasingly over the last decade, and these extreme rain events will continue due to global warming. The problem is despite this knowledge, the Delhi government has taken little action. Instead, it tells us now that the problem is the city’s old, creaking drainage network. But is Delhi’s drainage system so inadequate that it can handle only 50 mm of rainfall? Consequently, does Delhi need to rebuild its entire drainage network, given the increasing frequency of heavy rain?

To answer this question, I will refer to the most recent Drainage Master Plan (DMP) for the National Capital Territory of Delhi, prepared and submitted by IIT-Delhi in 2018. Despite being rejected by the Delhi government in 2021 as “non-actionable” and “too theoretical,” this report is our most reliable source of recent information and modelling results. So, what does this report contain that led the state government to dismiss it?

First of all, contrary to the Delhi government’s perspective, the DMP does not advocate for multi-crore mega-projects to construct a new drainage system for the city. Instead, it highlights mismanagement as the core issue and firmly recommends improvements in the existing drainage network to alleviate flooding. The main findings and recommendations of the DMP, which the Delhi government termed as theoretical, are as follows:

• The rampant encroachment of stormwater drains has reduced the carrying capacity, and hence special drives should be initiated to remove them.
• Authorities routinely dump sewage into storm drains, which heightens siltation. Additionally, residents often connect their rooftop drains to the sewage network due to a lack of local-level stormwater drains in the city. Prioritizing the construction of colony-level storm drains should help address this problem.
• Serious efforts should be made to stop the rampant disposal of garbage, road dust and construction waste into storm drains.
• A considerable amount is spent on pre-monsoon drain cleaning each year, yet no transparent verification system exists. A certification system should be implemented for the desilting exercise.
• Utilities are often laid inside storm drains, and pillars for elevated roads/metros are built within them, severely reducing the drains’ capacity. These constructions should be prohibited.
• The city’s drains are poorly designed, poorly aligned and badly constructed. Their efficiency can be significantly enhanced by improving the slope, alignment and cross-sections.
• Many water bodies have become redundant and need to be rejuvenated to play a key role in flood reduction by acting as detention and recharge basins.
• Rainwater harvesting in parks and open spaces will act as sponges and reduce flooding.
• Delhi’s drainage system is owned by 11 departments/agencies. About two-thirds of the drains are under the control of the state government, about 25% are with municipal corporations, and the remaining are with central government agencies such as Delhi Development Authority. Hence, one agency should be made responsible and accountable for the drains.

It’s clear that DMP’s recommended improvement can be made swiftly and inexpensively. While DMP didn’t rule out the construction of new drainage systems to adapt to changing rainfall patterns, it advised that improvements should precede any new construction.

Despite being practical, actionable, and frankly common sense, these recommendations were rejected, ostensibly because they lacked “actionable” large-scale projects. Consequently, five years later, PWD has engaged a new consultant to develop a fresh DMP, which will take another year to compile, and who knows how many more years to implement. Until then, the citizens of Delhi should anticipate more excuses and empty promises while hoping for deliverance from the rain gods.

El Nino is likely affecting rains. From colonial times, this weather phenomenon has strongly shaped India’s political-economy. How it will impact 2023-24’s many elections will depend on govt response:

As forecasts from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) signal the arrival of El Niño, it’s clear that India faces more than mere climatic changes. This weather phenomenon, infamous for its ability to warm the climate and disrupt weather patterns, could significantly reshape India’s political landscape.

El Niño has had a significant impact on the economic and political history of India. In fact, the overlap between El Niño years and the social and political development in the country is astounding and uncannily consistent.

Historically, El Niño has correlated with severe dry spells and droughts in the Indian subcontinent, often leading to diminished summer monsoon crop yields. During the British Raj, a combination of El Niño-induced droughts and colonial government mismanagement resulted in devastating famines that killed millions. The Great Famine of 1876–1878 and 1899-1900, which together claimed more than 10 million lives, coincided with strong El Niño years. These events, in turn, significantly influenced the anti-colonial movement in the country. For example, the famine of 1876-77 triggered the first substantial economic critique of the colonial government by Dadabhai Naoroji and Romesh Chunder Dutt. It also prompted William Wedderburn and A. O. Hume to establish the Indian National Congress, providing a platform for Indians to voice their opinions on government policies such as those related to drought management. Similarly, the El Niño-induced drought of 1918 led to the Kheda Satyagraha, which elevated Mahatma Gandhi’s profile and made Sardar Patel a household name in the country. There are numerous such examples, and one can trace many more significant events in the independence movement to El Niño.

El Niño’s influence has continued to shape the political and economic landscape of post-independence India as well. The most notable agricultural development– the Green Revolution – was triggered by the devastating droughts of 1964–65 and 1965–66. Likewise, the tumultuous period of 1976-1980, which saw the downfall of Indira Gandhi, the formation of the Janata Party government, and the fall of Morarji Desai’s and Charan Singh’s governments, all unfolded during the El Niño years. The 1979 El Niño was so devastating that it caused a once-in-a-century drought and contracted the Indian economy by more than 5%. The fallout of this political upheaval was the founding of the BJP in 1980, which successfully challenged Congress and came to power within two decades. In many ways, the India in which we live today was created in 1979. The question is: what kind of impacts will the 2023-24 El Niño have?

Firstly, the monsoon has arrived late and we have so far experienced a 51% deficit in rainfall. As El Niño has already developed in May-June, the second half of the monsoon will likely witness lower rainfall, as has been the trend in the past. Overall, it is becoming clear that we will not have a “normal” monsoon this year, despite the forecast of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). In fact, the Laboratory for Experimental Hydroclimate Prediction at the University of Maryland has forecasted a significant shortfall in rains during June-September, especially in North-West and South India.

Second, El Niño in combination with global warming is predicted to hit record-high temperatures. This means that the winter of 2023 could be warmer than usual, which could impact wheat production. India is already bearing the brunt of higher temperatures and heatwaves on wheat. During 2022, the record heatwaves in February and March reduced wheat production by close to 5 million tonnes. If temperatures rise even higher during 2023-24, the impacts on wheat production could be even greater. In addition, higher temperatures will exacerbate heatwave impacts and put immense pressure on electricity grid and health infrastructure.

Lastly, if El Niño persists, as it often does for more than a year, the 2024 Kharif crops could be at risk as well. So, El Niño could potentially impact three consecutive cropping seasons. The important point is that all these seasons coincide with a critical election period in India. Over the next 12 months, India will witness nine state elections, and the general elections slated for April-May, 2024. These elections could well see the effects of El Niño subtly shaping voter sentiments. This wouldn’t be the first time such a thing would have happened as there is a long history of weather and agricultural outcomes swaying political fortunes in India.

However, while the possibility of El Niño influencing election outcomes is real, it is just one of many variables that will shape the political landscape in the coming months. Economic performance, political alliances, leadership, and social issues will also have significant sway.

Note that not all El Niño induced severe droughts have resulted in political upheaval. Effective governmental responses to these challenges have often mitigated their impacts. For instance, despite severe droughts during 1982-83 and 2015-16, governments under the leadership of Indira Gandhi and Narendra Modi, respectively, managed to alleviate the adverse effects. Therefore, the government’s response to the challenges posed by El Niño could be a critical determinant of public perception and voting patterns.

Weather, indeed, has always played an important role in shaping the political fate of India. With the arrival of El Niño, 2023-24 promises to be a pivotal year where climate and politics intertwine, as never in independent India’s history so many elections have coincided with an El Niño year. How effectively politics respond to these challenges and how voters react will shape the climate change actions in the country in the years to come.

We shouldn’t panic about summer extremes, because there are well-understood solutions. The trick is to implement them smartly

Dear Sir,
I write to you from Lucknow, hoping you could answer some of my questions.
1.  Are we inevitably headed towards an unlivable India due to heatwaves?
2.  Do you believe Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) is imminent? Will India be forced to use this technology?
3.  What can we do to adapt to increasing heat?
4.  Are you optimistic about the future?

Wishing for a response.

(Name withheld)

As I was gearing up to write my monthly column, I received the above email from a young man who is clearly worried about the future. Given that his concerns are shared by millions of young people in our country, I have decided to use this platform to address them. I believe it is critical to empower the next generation with the right knowledge and perspective instead of debilitating them with fear.

Since the publication of Kim Stanley Robinson’s fictional novel The Ministry for the Future, some climate scientists have painted a doomsday scenario about deadly heatwaves in the Indian sub-continent. The book features an outlandish storyline in which a small Indian town is hit by an unsurvivable wet-bulb temperature heatwave, resulting in the death of all its inhabitants within a week. The Indian government responds by using SAI, which involves spraying sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere to mimic the cooling effect of a volcanic
eruption. The plot also includes an eco-terrorist network, the “Children of Kali”, which uses drones to crash passenger jets to protest against continuing carbon emissions.

Now think about the absurdity of the plot. It is inconceivable that any government would allow its citizens to die in high heat and humidity for a week without providing assistance or transferring them to a safer location. Similarly, SAI would not immediately cool the area or
save lives. It would take months before the planet starts cooling due to sulphur spray. Thus, there is no logical reason for the Indian government to spray sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere just after the deadly heatwave.

Despite these improbabilities, Robinson’s book has acquired cult status, partly due to endorsement from the likes of Barak Obama and Bill Gates, leading to the distortion in the views of impressionable minds. So my first answer to the young man is that deadly heatwaves will affect us badly, but they will not make India unlivable. We have a range of adaptation technologies and measures to deal with them. And we do not need technologies like SAI, with its enormous uncertainty and unintended consequences, to manage extreme heat. Let me explain.

It is a fact that heatwaves have increased every decade since the 1980s, and they now engulf most of the country. The worrying part is that temperature and humidity are rising together, leading to high wet-bulb temperatures. For example, the recent deaths in Kharghar in
Maharashtra were due to a combination of heat and humidity. The temperature was only about 36-37°C, but the humidity was 50-60%, taking the wet-bulb temperature near 30°C, which is dangerous for manual labour and the vulnerable population outside.

Therefore, there is no doubt that we have entered an age of hot extremes when the global temperature has increased by only 1.2°C from the pre-industrial era. At 1.5°C warming, there will be more severe heatwaves. At 2°C, “deadly” heatwaves would frequently cross 35°C
wet-bulb temperatures, which is the limit of human survivability. In addition, the number of days workers will have difficulty working outside will increase to 200-250 per year, which our economy cannot afford. So what do we do about this? Should we allow temperatures to keep increasing and then spray sulphur to cool the planet, or should we try to limit warming and adapt to heatwaves?

The answer is obvious: reducing carbon emissions is the cheapest and the best option to limit warming and deadly heatwaves. This we can do by deploying existing technologies – solar and wind energy, energy-efficient appliances, green buildings, electric vehicles, reducing
wasteful consumption – that will also support green growth and jobs. The good news is that these technologies are picking up. For example, in 2022, 40% of global electricity was produced from non-fossil sources (25% in India). If this trend continues, we can decarbonize
the global electricity supply by 2040-50, limiting warming to below 2°C.

Similarly, we can re-design our cities and buildings to adapt to heatwaves. This entails incorporating more open spaces, green areas, and water bodies into urban landscapes. Additionally, our buildings must be energy-efficient, with well-insulated walls and roofs and effective shading and ventilation systems to maintain a cool interior. But still, we will have to provide some cooling solutions to all buildings considering the high heat intensity. However, the current cooling technology, vapour-compression air conditioners, is part of the problem
due to its high energy consumption, harmful refrigerants, and contribution to heat islands. Therefore, we must replace outdated technologies with a new generation of affordable and green cooling solutions.

Finally, we need a new heat code based on the wet bulb temperature to avoid incidents like Kharghar. Many regions now experience wet-bulb temperatures exceeding 30°C during certain parts of the year, and our guidelines based on dry-bulb temperature do not capture
this.

I am optimistic about the future because every solution I have mentioned here is achievable. Moreover, the decarbonization trajectory globally and in India is moving in the right direction. Furthermore, I see the younger generation being more mindful and proactive about
addressing the climate crisis than my generation ever was. So my advice to the young man is: be more optimistic as yours will be the first generation that will play a heroic role in saving the planet.

Ukraine war showed rich countries can find money for diversifying their own energy supply but not for global climate finance. It also showed how fossil fuel companies exploited governments’ energy security concerns

The war in Ukraine has killed thousands, displaced millions and damaged the region’s economy. But the cost of this war is being borne worldwide, especially by the poor.

The war’s most significant consequence has been an extraordinary increase in food and fuel prices. As a result, most of the world’s population has paid through its nose to procure basic food and energy.

According to a recent study, the war has doubled household energy costs globally. In the poorer parts of the world, like Sub-Saharan Africa, household energy costs increased by up to three times the global average, pushing millions back into energy poverty. The prices of fuels were so high that the total energy bill of the world reached $10 trillion for the first time in history in 2022.

Likewise, the global Food Price Index (FPI) of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) was between 154.7 to 159.7 from March to June 2022, the highest level since the index’s inception in 1990.

The combined impact of higher fuel and food costs has pushed millions of households into absolute poverty. The increase in fuel price alone is estimated to have driven 78-141 million people below the World Bank’s extreme poverty line.

But the misery of the poor has been a bonanza for the rich. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has turned out to be the biggest profiteering opportunity, especially for the fossil fuel industry.

At about $4.0 trillion, the highest ever in history. For comparison, India’s GDP in 2022 was approximately $3.5 trillion. So, a handful of companies and their shareholders made more money than the value of all goods and services produced by a country of 1.35 billion people. Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest oil company, is projected to have a net profit of $170 billion, and the six largest western oil companies made over $200 billion. The worst part is that these extra profits were paid through fossil fuel subsidies.

In 2022, government subsidies worldwide for fossil fuel consumption skyrocketed to more than $1.5 trillion, again the highest in history. The largest increase in the subsidy was in the developed world, especially Europe, which never gets tired of preaching the virtue of ending fossil fuel subsidies in the developing world to combat the climate crisis.

The most critical piece of this high price-profit-subsidy story is that some of the money made by the fossil fuel companies is currently being invested in exploring, producing and selling more coal, oil and gas in the name of “energy security”. In 2022, an estimated $560 billion was invested by the Exxon Mobile and Chevron of the world to produce enough oil and gas to blow up the 1.5 ^OC target of the Paris Agreement. These oil and gas projects, termed “climate bombs”, will result in the emissions of at least 125 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO₂), equivalent to a third of the remaining carbon budget for the 1.5 ^OC target. So, the fossil fuel industry has exploited the energy security anxieties unleashed by this war to further its business goals and fast forward the world towards a catastrophic climate crisis. 

But the war has also shown an alternate vision of energy security which can be achieved in a much greener way if the governments of the world decide to do so. Take the case of Europe.

Europe’s most remarkable response to the war has been the unprecedented speed with which it has eliminated its dependence on Russian gas. Just before the war, nearly half of the EU’s natural gas came from Russia; today, it is about 10%. Europe achieved this by importing expensive LNG, burning more coal, and making the highest-ever investments in green energy – solar, wind, battery and electric vehicles. According to a recent estimate, these actions may have advanced the green energy transition in the EU by a few years. However, the EU and the UK had to shell out an additional half a trillion dollars for this transition in 2022.

That suggest rich countries, who dilly-dally on providing tens of billions to the developing countries as climate finance, suddenly found hundreds of billions for diversifying their energy supply. This shows that if the developed countries want, they can mobilize enough resources to accelerate their climate actions and support developing countries in mitigating and adapting to the climate crisis.

The EU was not the only region that has made record investments in green energy. According to BloombergNEF, globally, for the first time, investment in green energy technologies exceeded $1.1 trillion and was equal to the money spent on fossil fuels. The highest investments were made in China and the US; the EU was in third position. While the total investments are still way short of what is required to meet the climate goals, it is an important milestone. And this milestone has been achieved again because of energy security considerations.

So, the war has given us a glimpse of both the worst and the best scenario for the energy transition and climate crisis. It is up to us to choose which one we will pursue, climate bombs or green energy. Similarly, the world has to decide whether it wants death, poverty and profiteering or a peaceful solution to end this war. Again, the choice is ours.