Category: Op-ed

Flawed Seeding

Posted on by Chandra Bhushan

Experiments around the world have already established that cloud seeding can’t defeat air pollution. What Delhi is doing in their wake can’t even be called innovation. It’s just political theatre

Yesterday, to mitigate air pollution, Delhi govt, in collaboration with IIT Kanpur, conducted the first cloud-seeding trial in areas like Burari, north Karol Bagh and Mayur Vihar. This follows the 25-point Air Pollution Mitigation Plan for 2025 it had unveiled in June, as a prelude to the smog season. The very first item in this plan was a “pilot project of cloud seeding through IIT Kanpur to study its effectiveness in dust mitigation”.

I am all for experiments that explore innovative solutions. But I have a problem when experiments are touted and advertised as ready-made solutions, distracting attention from the real ones. This is precisely what is happening with cloud seeding in Delhi.

To understand why projecting cloud seeding as a solution is misleading, it is important to recall what we already know about this technology and its history.

First, cloud seeding-also known as artificial rain-is not new. It is an old technique historically used to induce rain during droughts. India first tested it in the 1950s and has continued researching it, most recently through the ‘Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX)’, conducted over a rain-shadow region of the Western Ghats by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

Thailand even has a ‘Department of Royal Rainmaking and Agricultural Aviation’ dedicated to inducing artificial rain. China and US today run the largest weather-modifi-cation programmes in the world. Dozens of countries continue to use cloud seeding, but almost exclusively for drought relief during rainy seasons.

Cloud seeding as a way to reduce air pollution, however, is a relatively recent idea-barely a decade old. Over this period, Lahore, Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Kuala Lumpur, Beijing, and several other Chinese cities have all tried it at least once. Almost all have since abandoned the practice, and for good reasons:

  • Cloud seeding works only if clouds are present but insufficient to produce rain on their own. This is why it is used during rainy seasons, not dry winters.
  • Even when conditions look promising, seeding often fails. Most experiments to improve air quality have produced no rainfall.
  • At best, a few localities in a large city receive showers. In Lahore in 2023, pockets of rain briefly improved air quality-but only for a few hours, not even days.

Because of these limitations, most cities worldwide have dropped cloud seeding, even as an emergency measure for air pollution control. Govts are well aware of these realities.

In 2024, Union environment ministry told Parliament that, based on expert opinion, cloud seeding as an emergency measure to improve Delhi’s air quality was not feasible.

Their assessment was categorical:

  • Winter clouds over north India form mostly from Western Disturbances, which are short-lived and already bring natural rain, making seeding unnecessary
  • High-altitude clouds (above 5-6km) cannot be seeded due to aircraft limitations.
  • Effective seeding requires specific cloud conditions, which are absent in Delhi’s cold, dry winters.
  • Even if precipitation formed, dry air beneath the clouds could evaporate it before reaching the ground.
  • Concerns remain about the chemicals used, their efficacy and possible unintended consequences.

In short: it won’t work.

So why is Delhi govt trying something that, according environment ministry, is destined to disappoint, if not fail? The answer lies in Delhi’s political theatre.

AAP first floated the idea of cloud seeding during the 2023 smog season but could not implement it, due to unsuitable weather. Now the new BJP govt wants to prove it can do what AAP could not. This is less about science and more about one-upmanship And IIT Kanpur, unfortunately, has allowed itself to be drawn into this spectacle.

But here is the bottom line: Delhi govt is promising to clean the city’s air or Yamuna with quick fixes that are doomed to fail. There are no shortcuts to solving environmental problems.

Take Yamuna, for instance. It will not be revived by interception and diversion (I&D) drains or by merely adding sewage treatment plant (STP) capacity, as Delhi govt is being advised.

Yamuna can only be restored through a modern wastewater management system-one that separates stormwater drains from sewers, ensures every household and establishment is connected to the sewer network, and treats all sewage in advanced plants that enable recycling and reuse.

Equally critical is coordinated action with neighbouring states, especially Haryana, to release adequate freshwater into the river during lean seasons.

Likewise, Delhi’s air will not improve through gimmicks like cloud seeding or water cannons. It requires a regional airshed approach: coordinated action across all states within a 300km radius of Delhi This means tackling biomass burning in households and industries, stubble burning in fields, Industrial and vehicular pollution, and dust from construction sites and roads-at their sources.

Everywhere in the world, environmental progress has come from systemic, scientific, accountable, and long-term solutions not quick fixes. Delhi must learn this lesson.

Experimentation and innovation have their place, but innovation cannot replace fundamentals. Unless we build robust infra and systems, we will remain trapped in an illusion of progress while our rivers and skies stay poisoned.

Cloud seeding is not rainmaking. It is policymaking by optics. Delhi deserves better.

Chhath Puja: The Yamuna can be cleaned — but only if we abandon shortcuts

Posted on by Chandra Bhushan, Manoj Kumar Singh and Akhilesh Gautam

We have been asking the wrong question. Instead of asking if rivers can be cleaned, we must ask how we can stop polluting them

Every year, as Chhath Puja brings millions of devotees to the banks of the Yamuna, the issue of river pollution takes centre stage. This, in turn, revives a perennial question: Can the Yamuna — or any polluted river in India — be cleaned?

The answer is both yes and no. Yes, because many countries across the world have restored their rivers and kept them clean. The technology exists; India, too, can achieve it. No state or authority has succeeded in keeping a water body unpolluted over the long term. The failure lies not in capacity but in approach. We have been asking the wrong question. Instead of asking if rivers can be cleaned, we must ask how we can stop polluting them. The difference is subtle but crucial. If waste is prevented from entering rivers, they will revive naturally, as we briefly saw during the COVID-19 lockdown when industries were shut.

Across the developed world, wastewater management is a solved problem: Sewage is collected from every household through a sewer network, sent to pumping stations, treated at sewage treatment plants (STPs), and discharged only after treatment. Industrial effluent is also strictly regulated, and industries comply with standards. In India, however, the story is different.

Why India is failing where others succeeded

In developed countries, and even in emerging economies like China, growing populations prompted cities to build systems that separated drains and sewers. Sewage went through a closed network of pipes to treatment plants, while drains carried only rainwater. In India, however, there is often no separation between sewer lines and stormwater drains. And where separate sewer lines do exist, a large percentage of households are not connected. Their sewage either flows directly into drains or into millions of septic tanks, from which untreated effluent eventually runs off into drains.

Instead of ensuring every household and institution is connected to a separate sewer line, we have promoted shortcuts — installing new STPs along with Interception and Diversion (I&D) drains that intercept open drains carrying mixed waste and divert them to STPs. On paper, this looks promising: If we can collect all wastewater through I&D drains and install enough STPs, then we can clean our rivers. This approach has been adopted by all river-cleaning schemes, including Namami Gange and the new Yamuna cleaning plan. But the reality on the ground is something else.

In the last decade, India has built impressive treatment capacity. Many cities now have more STP capacity than the sewage they generate. Delhi, for instance, generates 2,674 million litres per day (MLD) of sewage but has STPs capable of treating 3,300 MLD. Why then does untreated wastewater still flow into the Yamuna? The reason is simple: 30–40 per cent of Delhi’s population lives in colonies without sewer connections. Their sewage enters open drains, where it mixes with stormwater and other waste before being sent to STPs.

City Population (Million) Sewage Generated (MLD) Installed STP Capacity (MLD)
Lucknow 4.13 495.6 605
Prayagraj 1.35 162 340
Varanasi 2.08 294.6 410
New Delhi 22.28 2673.6 3300

But no treatment plant can handle the massive volumes of drain discharge, especially during the monsoon when untreated sewage is allowed to bypass the system entirely. Even in dry seasons, STPs struggle because they are designed for specific sewage parameters that they never actually receive — owing to the mixing of sewage with drain water — making treatment inefficient. Treating a mixture of sewage, rainwater, and industrial waste is unscientific and wasteful, yet this remains India’s dominant approach.

Another problem is fragmented responsibility. In Uttar Pradesh, different contractors from multiple organisations — such as Jal Sansthan and Jal Nigam — handled sewer networks, pumping stations, and STPs separately, with no single agency accountable. In 2019, the state introduced the ‘One-City-One-Operator’ model, under which one company manages the entire sewerage system of a city for 10–15 years, with payments linked to performance. International firms like SUEZ, VA Tech Wabag, and Toshiba now operate under this model, with centralised payment, effluent testing by accredited agencies, and independent monitoring. Accountability has improved, but without full sewer coverage and separation of sewage from drains, even the best operators cannot solve the problem.

The way forward

For years, Indian cities have avoided building comprehensive household-level sewerage systems, citing costs, and have relied on I&D drains as a stopgap until all households are connected. But it is now clear that both the environmental and economic costs of treating drains instead of sewage collected through closed sewer networks are unsustainable.

It is important to recognise that modern sewage treatment infrastructure is costly to build and maintain. There are no cheap solutions. The cost of sewage treatment is nearly three times the cost of producing potable water. In Lucknow, for example, it costs Rs 7 to produce 1,000 litres of potable water, but Rs 21 to treat sewage to tertiary standards (BOD below 10). This cost must ultimately be recovered from the public. Wherever possible, treated water should be reused, recycled, and sold, but a well-functioning sewerage system must simply be accepted as a necessary public cost.

The Yamuna can indeed be cleaned — but only if we abandon shortcuts. We must follow the basic principles that have worked elsewhere and invest in comprehensive, scientific, and accountable systems. We can certainly innovate and make our systems more efficient. But unless we get the fundamentals right, we will remain trapped in an illusion of progress while our rivers continue to die.

India’s ACs cool homes and are a hot problem

Posted on by Chandra Bhushan

World Ozone Day is a good reminder of what refrigerants used in millions of air-conditioners do to environment. Hydrofluorocarbons heat up earth even more than CO2

The ozone hole is healing. The layer that shields us from the sun’s deadly ultraviolet rays was severely damaged by chemicals like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), once widely used as refrigerants in air-conditioners and refrigerators. Thanks to the Montreal Protocol, these chemicals will be phased out globally by 2030. Scientists now predict that the ozone layer will fully recover by 2066, saving millions of lives from skin cancer.

Yet, as one crisis recedes, another is fast unfolding—this time caused by the new refrigerants that replaced CFCs and HCFCs. The coolants we use today—hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)—are hundreds of times more potent than carbon dioxide (CO₂) in heating the climate. And in India, we are leaking them recklessly from our room air-conditioners (RACs).

A cooling boom

The sale of RACs has been growing at 15–20% annually since 2020. Urbanization, rising incomes, and intensifying heatwaves have turned ACs from a middle-class luxury into a household necessity. India currently has about 70 million RACs. Even with modest annual sales growth of 10%, this number will triple to 245 million by 2035.

But how responsibly are we using and maintaining our ACs? How conscious are we about energy efficiency? How frequently are we refilling refrigerants? And how aware are we of their harmful impacts?

To find answers, my colleagues at iFOREST recently conducted a first-of-its-kind national household survey covering more than 3,100 families from all income groups across seven major cities—Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Pune, and Jaipur. The results are both fascinating and deeply worrying.

Perception vs. reality

The survey busted some long-held myths. For instance, the perception that most AC-owning households have multiple RACs is incorrect. Nearly 87% of such households own just one AC; only 13% have more than two. This shows that ACs are no longer limited to the wealthy. A large share is now in middle- and lower-income households.

Another myth is that Indians operate their ACs at freezing lows. The survey shows that the most preferred temperature setting across cities is 22–26°C, not the ultra-low levels we often assume. There is therefore little need for the government to mandate thermostat settings.

Encouragingly, Indian consumers are conscious about energy efficiency. Nearly 98% of households own 3-star to 5-star rated appliances, with the 3-star category dominating.

But these positives are overshadowed by one stark reality: the way we service our ACs is damaging for both the climate and consumer pockets.

Servicing equals refrigerant refill

In India, refrigerant leakage and refilling have reached crisis proportions. About 80% of ACs older than five years require refilling annually. Even one-third of newer ACs—less than five years old—are refilled every year. In effect, around 40% of all ACs in India are refilled annually. Ideally, ACs should need a refill only once in five years. In India, it happens every two to three years.

This unnecessary refilling comes at a steep cost. In 2024 alone, India’s ACs consumed 32 million kg of refrigerant. At an average cost of ₹2,200 per refill, households spent about ₹7,000 crore ($0.8 billion). If business continues as usual, the refilling bill will quadruple to nearly ₹27,500 crore ($3.1 billion) by 2035.

The environmental cost is even higher. HFC-32, the most widely used refrigerant in India, is 675 times more potent than CO₂ in trapping heat. In 2024, refrigerant leakage from ACs emitted greenhouse gases (GHGs) equivalent to 52 million tonnes (MT) of CO₂. By 2035, this will rise to 84 MT.

When we add emissions from electricity consumption, the total GHG emissions of India’s ACs in 2024 reached 156 MT—about the same as emissions from all passenger cars in the country. Put simply: the annual GHG emissions from an AC that is refilled every two years is as much as a car. By 2035, the total emissions from ACs are projected to double to 329 MT, making them the single largest GHG-emitting household appliance in India.

Policy without teeth

While India does have policies on refrigerant management, these are half-measures without strong enforcement. The India Cooling Action Plan aims to reduce refrigerant demand by 25–30% by 2037–38, but lacks regulations to back it. Similarly, the amended E-Waste (Management) Rules, 2023, include provisions for environmentally sound disposal of refrigerants from end-of-life ACs at approved facilities, but these are being poorly enforced.

Therefore, currently there are no effective systems to prevent leaks during servicing, no monitoring of refrigerant refills, and no accountability for end-of-life disposal. Unlike plastics or electronic waste, refrigerants do not fall under any meaningful Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) framework in India.

A solvable crisis

The refrigerant leakage crisis is urgent—but it is solvable. India must establish a comprehensive Lifecycle Refrigerant Management (LRM) regulation covering every stage—from refrigerant filling to servicing to disposal. AC manufacturers should be made responsible under an EPR regime to ensure recovery, recycling, and safe destruction of refrigerants. Such regulations are being implemented by many countries including Canada, Australia, the EU, China and Singapore.

If implemented effectively, LRM could prevent 500–650 MT of GHG emissions between 2025 and 2035—worth $25–33 billion in carbon credits at a moderate price of $50 per tonne. Consumers too would benefit, saving over $10 billion in unnecessary refill costs. This is a win-win solution: lower household expenses, reduced refrigerant wastage, and significant climate gains.

India showed leadership in the fight to protect the ozone layer by phasing out CFCs and HCFCs well before global deadlines. We can lead once again, this time in protecting the climate.

Beating the Heat

Posted on by Chandra Bhushan

On September 2, 2025, Bhubaneswar became the first Indian city to release an Integrated Heat and Cooling Action Plan (IHCAP) to comprehensively tackle two growing crises—rising heat stress and the explosion in air conditioning demand.

Heat stress is not new to India. Over the past two decades, the country has experienced increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves that have claimed thousands of lives, reduced worker productivity, and strained health systems. But the crisis has changed. Cities are now caught in a vicious cycle of heat and cooling: higher temperatures and humidity drive-up air-conditioning use, which worsens the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect and greenhouse gas emissions. This, in turn, makes cities even hotter—and more dependent on cooling.

It is precisely this cycle that Bhubaneswar’s IHCAP seeks to break. It is India’s first city-level plan that integrates urban planning, green buildings, sustainable cooling, and heat adaptation measures under one umbrella.

A City on the Frontline of Heat

Bhubaneswar has long been one of India’s most heat-affected cities. Over the last four decades, average temperatures and humidity levels have risen steadily across the year. Even more worrying is the rise in night-time temperatures, which robs people of relief and increases health risks. Today, heat stress stretches from February to October. As per the IMD’s “Feels Like” index, which uses temperature and humidity to measure heat stress, the city endured nearly 230 days of Yellow or Orange heat alerts in 2024.

Rapid urbanisation has further compounded heat stress. Between 2018 and 2024, Bhubaneswar’s built-up area grew by 23%, while vegetation declined by nearly 10% and water bodies by a staggering 75%. The result is a far more pronounced UHI effect, with the city now 2–5°C hotter than surrounding rural areas.

The impacts are already evident. Outdoor workers—from construction crews to street vendors—lose 20–30% of productivity and wages to heat stress. Overall, the city lost 8.6% of its annual income due to heat stress. At the same time, AC ownership has more than doubled in just two years, rising from 6% of households in 2021 to 15% in 2023. Cooling now accounts for one-third of the city’s electricity use—and nearly two-thirds in peak summer months.

Looking ahead, the situation could worsen dramatically. Under an intermediate climate warming scenario, a “normal hot day” in 2050 will feel like today’s extreme heat days. The city, therefore, will have to rely on cooling to survive. Under a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, therefore, electricity demand from cooling could rise 7.6 times by 2050 compared to current levels.

What the IHCAP Offers

Against this backdrop, Bhubaneswar’s IHCAP lays out a comprehensive five-pillar strategy:

  • Cool the City: Expand greenery, revive water bodies, promote cool roofs, and redesign streets to reduce UHI.
  • Cool Buildings: Implement energy conservation building codes and promote climate-responsive designs to reduce heat absorption and enhance indoor comfort.
  • Sustainable Cooling for All: Ensure access to affordable, efficient, and climate-friendly cooling solutions such as efficient fans and ACs, district cooling systems, and white roofs for low-income homes.
  • Enhance Heat Resilience: Strengthen electricity, water, and health systems; build cooling shelters and provide cool bus stops and public water kiosks.
  • Adapt to Heat: Update heat alert thresholds to account for humidity and night-time temperatures, provide insurance for vulnerable workers, and expand awareness campaigns.

If implemented effectively, these interventions could reduce surface temperatures by 0.5–9.4°C, depending on the type of measure, and cut the city’s cooling-related electricity demand by 44–67% compared to the BAU scenario.

Beyond Bhubaneswar

The IHCAP connects two national policies that have so far worked in silos. The India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP) of the environment ministry that promotes sustainable cooling, and the Heat Action Plan (HAP) of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), which focus primarily on early warning and heat adaptation. By unifying them, the IHCAP offers a comprehensive framework to address heat stress that other cities can adapt and adopt.

Scaling this framework, however, will require significant policy reforms. NDMA’s HAP guidelines must be updated to include heat mitigation and sustainable cooling measures. City master plans and building codes will also need revision. For example, the Energy Conservation and Sustainable Building Code, 2024 for commercial and institutional buildings and the Eco-Niwas Samhita 2024 for residential buildings cover only a fraction of upcoming construction. In Bhubaneswar, just 25% of commercial and institutional buildings and a mere 1.5% of residential construction fall under these codes. Likewise, master plans do not consider UHI, heat mitigation strategies or the need for heat-resilient infrastructure.

By mid-century, India will be home to 600–700 million urban residents, most of them in heat-stressed cities. Without integrated action, we risk a future where outdoor work becomes unsafe for millions, inequality deepens, and cities completely rely on cooling appliances to survive.

Bhubaneswar’s IHCAP, however, shows that cities can avoid this dystopian future and break the vicious cycle of heat and cooling through scientific modelling, innovative planning, and forward-looking policy.

Note: Bhubaneshwar’s IHCAP is developed by iFOREST in collaboration with the Singapore-ETH Centre, which is running the Cooling Singapore program.

Our Ruhr Valley Needs Reinvention

Posted on by Chandra Bhushan

Spanning the coal-rich districts of Jharkhand and West Bengal, Damodar Valley (DV)-India’s ‘Ruhr Valley’-has powered the country’s growth since Independence. Coal from Jharia and Raniganj has fuelled India’s rise while steel plants of Durgapur and Bokaro, and fertiliser factories of Sindri became ‘temples of modern India’.

Today, the region stands as a stark paradox: rich in coal and industrial infrastructure, yet choking on resources that once made it prosperous. The air is thick with pollution, rivers flow contaminated and the economic model that once promised eternal employment is now creating a landscape of uncertainty. The imperative is clear: DV must urgently transition from a coal-based past, or risk terminal decline. Evidence of the coming decline is everywhere:

► In Dhanbad, India’s ‘coal capital’, nearly half the mines are abandoned or non-operational. By 2030, 80% of its mines will cease operations due to exhausted reserves or unprofitability. This story echoes across the Valley. Coal production in West Bengal’s Raniganj has plateaued at about 40-50 MT per year. Once the country’s largest coal producer, the Damodar basin has now fallen to third place, overtaken by coalfields in Odisha and Chhattisgarh.

► Downstream industries are faring no better. Jharkhand, sitting on mountains of coal, is ironically, a net importer of electricity. Ageing thermal power plants at Patratu, Bokaro, Bandel and Kolaghat have shut down. Overall, less than 5% of India’s thermal power capacity remains here. Even Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC)’s multi-purpose dams, designed for flood control, irrigation and hydropower, are silting up. Their power generation is minimal, and their flood-control capabilities are increasingly compromised.

But this is not just an economic crisis. It’s a human one. Over 2 lakh workers face the spectre of job losses. The region’s workforce participation rate is 30%. Without a viable alternative, the region is staring at a socioeconomic vacuum of immense proportions.

Yet, within this crisis lies an unprecedented opportunity. The same assets that defined the valley’s industrial age can be repurposed to build its green future. An August 2025 iFOREST Assessment, ‘Transforming India’s Coal Capital’, reveals that Dhanbad, Bokaro and Ramgarh (DBR)—the core of the valley—have the potential to become a major green industrial corridor.

The region has over 1 lakh ha of barren and mining-ravaged land, a potential site for solar farms capable of generating up to 10 GW of clean power by 2030. Reservoirs at Maithon, Panchet, and Tenughat can host floating solar projects and become the foundation for a green hydrogen industry.

With India pushing for hydrogen-based steelmaking and fertiliser production, DBR—with its existing steel and fertiliser plants and water infra—is uniquely positioned to become a hub for green hydrogen, green steel and green fertiliser. Also, repurposed coal mines into solar farms, industrial parks, or even as carbon sinks can drive local employment and economic diversification.

Infrastructure is already in place: robust connectivity via national highways and railways, and proximity to upcoming Amritsar-Kolkata Industrial Corridor. Most importantly, the region has a young, resilient workforce. To realise this potential, however, a good strategy is essential.

► Plan green GoI must partner with states to create a new blueprint for DV, transforming it from a traditional coal economy into a vanguard of green development. A dedicated Green Growth Plan for the DBR region should be the starting point. In addition, DVC must diversify into a green energy company.

► Just transition Workers and communities who built the coal economy must not be left behind. This requires investment in skilling, social protection and enterprise development. Jharkhand must prepare a ‘just transition policy’ to ensure that the move to a green economy is equitable and inclusive. Germany’s Ruhr Valley faced an identical crisis with the decline of coal. It chose a path of proactive transformation, investing in tech, education and culture. Its last coal mine closed in 2018. But today, former industrial sites are vibrant museums, universities and green spaces.

The valley now stands at the same crossroads. It has given its energy, environment and labour to build India. But it must now face the dual realities of depleting coal reserves and global shift toward clean energy. Ruhr teaches us that transformation cannot be left to chance. It requires foresight, planning and investment. If India acts decisively, Damodar Valley can avoid decline. Instead, it can lead the green transition in eastern India.

Breaking a vicious cycle

Posted on by Chandra Bhushan

Scientific modelling, innovative planning, & forward-looking policy can help cities beat heat stress.

Bhubaneswar has become the first Indian city to launch an Integrated Heat and Cooling Action Plan (IHCAP).

On September 2, Bhubaneswar became the first Indian city to release an Integrated Heat and Cooling Action Plan (IHCAP) to comprehensively tackle two growing crises—rising heat stress and the explosion in air conditioning demand.

Heat stress is not new to India. Over the past two decades, the country has experienced increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves that have claimed thousands of lives, reduced worker productivity, and strained health systems. But the crisis has changed. Cities are now caught in a vicious cycle of heat and cooling—higher temperatures and humidity drive up air-conditioning use, which worsens the urban heat island (UHI) effect and greenhouse gas emissions. This, in turn, makes cities even hotter—and more dependent on cooling.

It is precisely this cycle that Bhubaneswar’s IHCAP seeks to break. It is India’s first city-level plan that integrates urban planning, green buildings, sustainable cooling, and heat adaptation measures under one umbrella.

A city on the frontline of heat

Bhubaneswar has long been one of India’s most heat-affected cities. Over the last four decades, average temperatures and humidity levels have risen steadily across the year. Even more worrying is the rise in night-time temperatures, which robs people of relief and increases health risks. Today, heat stress stretches from February to October. According to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) “feels like” index, which uses temperature and humidity to measure heat stress, the city endured nearly 230 days of yellow or orange heat alerts in 2024.

Rapid urbanisation has further compounded heat stress. Between 2018 and 2024, Bhubaneswar’s built-up area grew by 23%, while vegetation declined by nearly 10% and water bodies by a staggering 75%. The result is a far more pronounced UHI effect, with the city now 2 to 5°C hotter than surrounding rural areas.

The impacts are already evident. Outdoor workers—from construction crews to street vendors—lose 20-30% of productivity and wages to heat stress. Overall, the city lost 8.6% of its annual income due to heat stress. At the same time, AC ownership has more than doubled in just two years, rising from 6% of households in 2021 to 15% in 2023. Cooling now accounts for one-third of the city’s electricity use—and nearly two-thirds in the peak summer months.

Looking ahead, the situation could worsen dramatically. Under an intermediate climate warming scenario, a “normal hot day” in 2050 will feel like today’s extreme heat days. The city, therefore, will have to rely on cooling to survive. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, therefore, electricity demand from cooling could rise 7.6 times by 2050 compared to current levels.

What the IHCAP offers

Against this backdrop, Bhubaneswar’s IHCAP lays out a comprehensive five-pillar strategy:

Cool the city: Expand greenery, revive water bodies, promote cool roofs, and redesign streets to reduce UHI.

Cool buildings: Implement energy conservation building codes and promote climate-responsive designs to reduce heat absorption and enhance indoor comfort.

Sustainable cooling for all: Ensure access to affordable, efficient, and climate-friendly cooling solutions such as efficient fans and ACs, district cooling systems, and white roofs for low-income homes.

Enhance heat resilience: Strengthen electricity, water, and health systems; build cooling shelters and provide cool bus stops and public water kiosks.

Adapt to heat: Update heat alert thresholds to account for humidity and night-time temperatures, provide insurance to vulnerable workers, and expand awareness campaigns.

If implemented effectively, these interventions could reduce surface temperatures by 0.5-9.4°C, depending on the type of measure, and cut the city’s cooling-related electricity demand by 44-67% compared to the BAU scenario.

Beyond Bhubaneswar

The IHCAP connects two national policies that have so far worked in silos. The India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP) of the environment ministry promotes sustainable cooling and the Heat Action Plan (HAP) of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) (focusses primarily on early warning and heat adaptation. By unifying them, the IHCAP offers a comprehensive framework to address heat stress that other cities can adapt and adopt.

Scaling this framework, however, will require significant policy reforms. The NDMA’s HAP guidelines must be updated to include heat mitigation and sustainable cooling measures. City master plans and building codes will also need revision. For example, the Energy Conservation and Sustainable Building Code, 2024, for commercial and institutional buildings and the Eco-Niwas Samhita 2024 for residential buildings cover only a fraction of upcoming construction. In Bhubaneswar, just 25% of commercial and institutional buildings and a mere 1.5% of residential construction fall under these codes. Likewise, master plans do not consider UHI, heat mitigation strategies, or the need for heat-resilient infrastructure.

By mid-century, India will be home to 600-700 million urban residents, most of them in heat-stressed cities. Without integrated action, we risk a future where outdoor work becomes unsafe for millions, inequality deepens, and cities completely rely on cooling appliances to survive.

Bhubaneswar’s IHCAP, however, shows that cities can avoid this dystopian future and break the vicious cycle of heat and cooling through scientific modelling, innovative planning, and forward-looking policy.

Delhi’s old car muddle

Posted on by Chandra Bhushan

The Delhi government has taken a U-turn from its initiative to deny fuel and impound diesel vehicles older than 10 years and petrol vehicles older than 15 years, largely due to public backlash. The Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM), which had given this direction, has now decided to postpone this action to November.

But I’m somewhat amused by this entire episode. I am amused by the sudden public outrage over this directive as many seem to believe this is a new crackdown. But here’s the fact: these vehicles were banned in Delhi nearly seven years ago, on October 30, 2018, when the Delhi government began enforcing a Supreme Court-backed order that prohibits such vehicles not just from operating, but even from being parked or being present in the city. The latest directive was merely an attempt to enforce an old order using a new method.

In fact, law-abiding citizens have been selling their older vehicles ever since the 2018 law. Take my case. I sold my well-maintained 10-year-old Bharat Stage IV diesel car — barely run for 100,000 km — in 2022. It went to a tour operator in Punjab at a bargain price so generous that he still sends me Diwali sweets. I didn’t want to part with the car, but the law left me no choice. And I wasn’t alone. Over the past seven years, lakhs of Delhiites have sold their vehicles to comply with the ban. Of course, the majority of these vehicles have not gone to scrapyards as intended; instead, they’ve been relocated to other parts of the country, polluting their environments instead.

So, why has the Delhi government decided to enforce the refuelling restriction now, seven years after banning these vehicles? More specifically, why has the CAQM issued this direction at this moment? Do they have data showing that the original ban has been ineffective? The answer is no. The fact is, the entire air quality action plan being enforced by the Delhi government and agencies like CAQM is bereft of data. There is no evidence showing the impact of the vehicle ban on air quality — or even tracking the enforcement of the ban itself.

Take the case of enforcement. There is no formal vehicle deregistration system in Delhi. Even when vehicles are scrapped, they remain technically “registered” with the Regional Transport Office (RTO). Owners are expected to voluntarily deregister their vehicles — a process so tedious that few attempt it. This bureaucratic blind spot means the government has no reliable data on how many vehicles remain on Delhi’s roads, let alone how much pollution they continue to cause. And that’s the crux of the issue — an absence of governance systems to enforce or evaluate its actions.

The CAQM’s decision to block fuel sales, therefore, is not driven by scientific insight or robust data. Delhi has spent years creating the illusion of action without building the capacity to measure impact. Despite the relentless headlines on Delhi’s air pollution, there is no data showing whether banning vehicles or halting construction during winter has improved air quality. We’re acting in a blindfolded manner, hoping that symbolic policies will solve real problems.

And that brings us to the real question: does banning 10-year-old diesel and 15-year-old petrol vehicles help? The honest answer: not much.

Vehicles contribute less than 10 percent of Delhi’s PM 2.5 emissions. Of that, the majority comes from two- and three-wheelers. But we know that banning two-wheelers is a political hot potato and therefore difficult to enforce. That means cars — which contribute less than 5 percent to Delhi’s PM 2.5 problem — are the main focus of the ban. The impact of banning cars on air quality, therefore, will be minimal.

This is exactly why the much-hyped odd-even vehicle rationing scheme failed. It ignored the science of air pollution and tried to project political will through traffic gimmicks. Banning cars based on age and denying them fuel is another version of the same performative theatre.

In fact, these policies will do more harm than good to the environment. They prematurely dispose vehicles, pushing people to buy new ones, thereby boosting automobile sales and adding more vehicles to the road. In addition, every new vehicle carries a hidden environmental cost in terms of emissions from raw materials, manufacturing, and logistics.

Rather than fixing arbitrary age limits, a sensible vehicle retirement policy would be based on fitness. Around the world, vehicles are allowed to operate as long as they pass periodic fitness checks, including emissions testing. A 15-year-old car that is well maintained and meets pollution standards is less harmful than a new one, if we consider the environmental impact of a vehicle’s full lifecycle.

But the problem is that India lacks the necessary infrastructure to make this happen. There’s no robust inspection and certification (I&C) system, no reliable pollution testing, and no systematic registration-deregistration process for vehicles. Nor do we have an effective network of End-of-Life Vehicle collection and recycling centres. If we’re serious about reducing vehicular pollution, we must invest in a credible and modern vehicle lifecycle management system.

Let me be very clear: banning polluting vehicles is a good idea. Old, polluting vehicles must be phased out. But they must be banned through a structured, evidence-based, and environmentally sound policy regime — not ad hoc decisions. In the absence of systems, such bans serve more as virtue signalling than pollution control. The air will not get cleaner because you made life harder for a few car owners. It will get cleaner when you treat clean air not as a slogan, but as a regional economy-wide problem — one that needs a long-term plan, and scientific and institutional investment. 

 

Virtue Signalling Doesn’t Control Pollution

Posted on by Chandra Bhushan

Public outrage has muted Delhi’s drive to push out old cars. Bigger problem is that clean air policies are fashioned without scientific insight or robust data. Some actually hurt the environment

Public backlash has forced Delhi govt to walk back from its initiative to impound ‘end of life’ vehicles. But before this, the sudden outrage over the directive to stop refuelling diesel vehicles older than 10 years and petrol vehicles older than 15 years was somewhat amusing. Many seemed to believe this was a new crackdown.

But these vehicles were banned in Delhi nearly seven years ago, on Oct 30, 2018, when govt began enforcing a Supreme Court backed order that prohibits such vehicles not just from operating, but even from being parked or present in the city. So, the fuel denial directive was merely an attempt to enforce an old order using a new method.

In fact, law-abiding citizens have been selling their older vehicles ever since the 2018 law. I sold my well-maintained 10 years old Bharat Stage IV diesel car (barely run for 100,000 km) in 2022. It went to a tour operator in Punjab at a bargain price so generous that he still sends me Diwali sweets.

Over the past seven years, lakhs of Delhiites have sold their vehicles to comply with the ban. Of course, the majority of these vehicles have not gone to scrap yards as intended; instead, they’ve been relocated to other parts of the country, polluting their environments instead.

So, why did Delhi govt decide to enforce the refuelling restriction seven years after banning these vehicles? Did the Commission for Air Quality Management have data showing that the original ban had been ineffective? No. There entire air quality action plan being enforced by Delhi govt and agencies like CAQM is bereft of data. There is no evidence showing the impact of vehicle ban on air quality, or even tracking the enforcement of the ban itself.

There is no formal vehicle deregistration system in Delhi. In effect, end-of-life vehicles are permanently technically ‘registered’ with the Regional Transport Office. Owners are expected to voluntarily deregister their vehicles – a process so tedious that few attempt it. This bureaucratic blind spot means govt has no reliable data on how many vehicles remain on Delhi’s roads, let alone how much pollution they continue to cause.

CAQM’s decision to block fuel sales, therefore, was not driven by scientific insight or robust data. Delhi has spent years creating the illusion of action without building the capacity to measure impact. Despite the relentless headlines on its air pollution, there is no data showing whether banning vehicles or halting construction during winters has improved air quality. We’re acting blindfolded, hoping that symbolic policies will solve real problems.

That brings us to the real question: does banning 10-year-old diesel and 15-year-old petrol vehicles help? Not much. Vehicles contribute less than 10% of Delhi’s PM2.5 emissions. Of that, the majority comes from two- and three-wheelers. But banning two-wheelers is a political hot potato and therefore difficult to enforce. That means cars (which contribute less than 5% to Delhi’s PM2.5 problem) are the main focus of the ban, even though the impact of banning cars on air quality would be minimal.

This is exactly why the much-hyped odd-even vehicle rationing scheme failed. It ignored the science of air pollution and tried to project political will through traffic gimmicks. Banning cars based on age and denying them fuel is another version of the same performative theatre.

Such policies do more harm than good to the environment. Prematurely disposing of vehicles, pushing people to buy new ones, boosts automobile sales and adds more vehicles to the road. In addition, every new vehicle carries a hidden environmental cost in terms of emissions from raw materials, manufacturing and logistics.

Rather than fixing arbitrary age limits, a sensible vehicle retirement policy would be based on fitness. Around the world, vehicles are allowed to operate as long as they pass periodic fitness checks, including emissions testing. A 15-year-old car that is well-maintained and meets pollution standards is less harmful than a new one, if we consider the environmental impact of a vehicle’s full life cycle.

But the problem is that India lacks the necessary infra to make this happen. There’s no robust inspection and certification system, no reliable pollution testing, and no systematic registration or deregistration process for vehicles. Nor do we have an effective network of end-of-life vehicle collection and recycling centres. If we’re serious about reducing vehicular pollution, we must invest in a credible and modern vehicle lifecycle management system.

To be clear, banning polluting vehicles is a good idea. Old, polluting vehicles must be phased out. But they must be banned through a structured, evidence-based, and environmentally sound policy regime, not ad hoc decisions. In the absence of systems, such bans serve more as virtue signalling than pollution control.

The air will not get cleaner because you make life harder for car owners. It will get cleaner when you treat clean air not as a slogan, but as a system – one that needs long-term, scientific, and institutional investment.

 

 

Why Rooftop Solar Power can be Assam’s Trump Card!

Posted on by Suhail Mir

Today, Assam sources more than 70% of its electricity from coal and gas. Just 9% comes from renewable sources.

Assam is at a pivotal moment in its energy story. With electricity demand expected to double over the next decade, the State faces the dual challenge of meeting growing consumption while moving away from polluting fossil fuels. Today, Assam sources more than 70% of its electricity from coal and gas. Just 9% comes from renewable sour.

Assam is an energy-deficient State. Long transmission lines from distant coal plants lead to transmission losses and grid stress. How can Assam build a cleaner, more resilient power system that serves its people equitably?

The answer could be right above our heads.

Rooftop solar is emerging as the most practical, inclusive, and sustainable way forward for Assam. Unlike large solar parks or hydropower projects, it doesn’t need extra land or huge expenses, only unused rooftop space. It bypasses transmission bottlenecks, putting power directly in people’s hands. It fits well with Assam’s geography too, where land availability is limited.

The State has made some promising moves. Assam’s clean energy policy now targets 1,900 megawatts of rooftop solar by 2030, up from 300 megawatts earlier. Gujarat and Maharashtra have already installed about 5,300 MW and 3,400 MW, while Assam has installed just 75 MW.

Recognising this, the government offers a Rs 15,000 per kW subsidy, in addition to Central schemes like the PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana (Rs 33,000 per kW). Rooftop solar is structured across government, commercial and industrial, and residential segments, with Assam Power Distribution Corporation Limited (APDCL) leading the charge.

According to a study by iFOREST, Assam has a total rooftop availability of 737.1 km², with 86% in rural areas. Nearly 95% is spread across residential and mixed-use buildings. The study shows that the State can generate more than 13,000 MW of solar electricity – enough to meet 100% of Assam’s annual power demand based on current consumption.

Urban centres such as Kamrup Metropolitan – especially Guwahati – offer the highest potential. Guwahati can host between 625 and 985 MW of rooftop solar. Areas such as Lokhra, Garchuk, Khanapara, Garbhanga, Sarusajai, Borsajai, Sawkuchi and parts of Dakhingaon stand out. Basistha, Dispur and Kahilipara are not far behind. If fully tapped, these can reduce the city’s dependence on grid-supplied thermal power.

What makes rooftop solar special is how people-powered it is. Rooftop solar is affordable, scalable and democratic. Every family, school, shop, village and city can tap into it. This is energy that citizens can invest in to run their homes, schools, shops and societies. Once installed, it slashes electricity bills – sometimes nearly to zero – and improves reliability. A typical household in Assam can cut electricity bills by 50% to 90%, depending on weather, usage and system size. Solar also provides backup during power cuts and peak demand periods. Assam gets over 280 sunny days a year, making rooftop solar a dependable option.

It’s also zero-carbon. Rooftop solar is clean, local and community-driven. Scaling it can create thousands of green jobs. If Assam harnesses the full 13,000 MW potential, this could mean 1.8 lakh jobs, especially for local youth. Good policies can fail if systems are not responsive. Across India, people have faced hurdles – delays in approvals, complicated paperwork, late subsidy payments, and substandard installations. Assam must avoid these pitfalls.

So, what will it take to unlock Assam’s rooftop solar potential?

  • First, streamline processes. Approvals and subsidy applications should be fast, simple and transparent.
  • Second, unlock finance. Even after subsidies, upfront costs remain a barrier. Assam must partner with banks and rural financial institutions to offer low-interest solar loans.
  • Third, assure quality. Poor installations damage trust. A State-certified registry of installers, backed by training programmes, can ensure quality. Every district should have skilled technicians.
  • Fourth, show it works. Schools, shops, government buildings and housing societies should serve as demonstration sites. When people see solar working in their community, it builds trust.
  • Finally, match policy with action. Set clear timelines for approvals, payments and financing. Invest in local skills and quality checks.

Citizens also play a role. Ask your neighbour about their solar panel. Request quotes from vendors. A solar-powered shop sends a message: green, modern, future-ready.
Imagine every home in Sarusajai, Lokhra or Dispur powered by the sun. Rooftop solar is a symbol of empowerment. Assam must walk the talk on clean energy, roof by roof, family by family, village by village. Because this shift is ultimately a profound act for better air, reliable energy and green livelihoods.

The material question

Posted on by Chandra Bhushan

Plastic pollution needs industrial transformation, not just environmental regulations.

On World Environment Day this year, hundreds — if not thousands — of events were organised across India to address plastic pollution, echoing the day’s official theme: “Beat Plastic Pollution”. A quick scan of social media reveals that the primary focus of these events was on eliminating polythene bags, reducing littering, improving collection and segregation, and promoting recycling and reuse.

But the sobering reality is this: Despite decades of effort, globally, only 9% of plastic waste is recycled, 50% ends up in landfills, 19% is incinerated, and the remaining 22% is either littered or openly burnt — polluting land, water, and air. Even in advanced economies, plastics largely end up in landfills or incinerators —very little is actually recycled.

In India, where plastic consumption is surging, the challenge is particularly acute due to weak waste management infrastructure. While the plastic recycling rate is relatively high — about 40% — much of this is downcycling into low-value products that re-enter the waste stream relatively quickly. As a result, India is now considered the world’s top producer of unmanaged plastic waste. So, can we truly “beat” plastic pollution by just improving recycling and reuse?

First, it is important to understand the profound disconnect between the inherent nature of plastic and the products manufactured from it. Plastic is, quite literally, a “forever material”, It can take decades to centuries to decompose, and even then, it never truly disappears. Instead, it fragments into progressively smaller pieces, ultimately becoming microplastics — insidious particles now linked to serious health ailments, including cancer.Yet, this “forever material” is predominantly used for short-life products — items designed to be used and discarded within days. These are what we commonly refer to as single-use plastics (SUPs), used mostly for packaging.

From thin plastic bags to food wrappers, bottles, and sachets, plastic packaging dominates our lives — and our garbage bins. It is cheap to produce but expensive to collect and recycle, leading to widespread littering. In India, the use of plastic packaging has ballooned. Today, 60% of all plastic is used for packaging — far higher than the global average of 40%. What’s more, this segment is growing at 8-9% annually, faster than overall plastic use at around 6%. If current trends continue, India’s plastic packaging consumption will nearly double — from 11 million tonnes in 2022 to 20 million tonnes by 2030. Of this, about 70% will be single-use packaging for the food, beverage, and personal/home care sectors.

Regulating plastic packaging

India has been a trend-setter in regulating SUPs. It banned polythene bags thinner than 20 microns in as early as 1999. By 2011, this threshold increased to 40 microns, and municipal authorities were tasked with setting up waste collection centres. The Plastic Waste Management Rules of 2016 further expanded regulations, raising the minimum thickness to 50 microns, extending rules to rural areas, and introducing an extended producer responsibility (EPR) framework to make plastic producers responsible for waste collection and recycling. In 2022, 19 specific SUP items were banned, and EPR guidelines mandated the recycling of 60-80% of plastic waste by 2027-28. However, the results of all these efforts have been modest. Banned SUPs, including thin plastic bags, are still sold, and plastic producers and recyclers have been found gaming the EPR system by inflating recycling rates.The reason these rules have not delivered is that they have often been enacted in haste, without preparing the ground for transition. For instance, many states banned SUPs with just 90 days’ notice to the industry. Expecting a multi-billion-dollar industry that employs millions of workers to transform overnight is unrealistic.

If there’s one lesson from our 25-year struggle with plastic regulation, it is this: bans and regulations alone will not work. What we need is a well-planned industrial transformation in the plastic and packaging industry.Reducing plastic pollution, therefore, is not just a matter of increasing recycling and reuse; it requires building an entirely new industrial ecosystem. This calls for an integrated industrial, regulatory, and investment road map grounded in five strategic pillars

National plastic strategy: India needs a long-term National Plastic Strategy focused on developing and investing in alternatives to plastics, reducing single-use plastic packaging, cutting plastic demand, and enabling a circular plastic economy.

Packaging policy and standards: A clear policy and enforceable standards for packaging, based on lifecycle assessments, must be developed. These should encourage alternatives, improve recyclability, and reduce overall packaging demand.

Investment in recycling and innovation: Plastic recycling in India is dominated by underfunded and technologically outdated micro, small, and medium enterprises. We need large-scale investments in advanced recycling — including chemical recycling, depolymerisation, and other next-generation methods. This must be backed by dedicated research and development funding to support innovation in recycling processes.

Infrastructure and capacity upgrades: A strong emphasis should be placed on improving existing waste management infrastructure for segregation, sorting, and recycling.

Behavioural change and social awareness: Managing plastic waste requires behavioural shifts in how we buy, consume, and dispose of products. This means investing in public awareness campaigns, school education, and nudging industries to adopt more responsible packaging practices. Ultimately, fighting plastic pollution is not just a technical challenge — it is a cultural one.

The plastic crisis is deeply embedded in our economy, infrastructure, and daily habits. If we continue to treat it solely as an environmental problem, we’ll be stuck in an endless loop of regulations, bans, enforcement failures, and symbolic themes on World Environment Day.

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