SUMMER: NO HAPPY ENDING

Heat Action Plans across cities will fail because they are not backed by money & they don’t factor in local conditions. Heatwaves must be classified as natural disasters, with legally binding solutions.

The heatwave of 2024 had a devastating impact in most parts of the country. While we will never know the exact number of fatalities, thanks to factors like underreporting and the narrow criteria for recording heat-related deaths, anecdotal evidence suggests they must be in thousands.

For example, in just three days, between June 18 and 20, Delhi Police recovered more than 50 bodies, mostly homeless individuals, as extreme heat swept across the city.

This year’s heatwave is also predicted to be severe. IMD has forecast higher-than-usual temperatures from April to June, with increased heatwave days across large parts of the country. The question is: How prepared are we to deal with the deadly impact of extreme heat in 2025?

First, awareness of heatwaves has increased significantly in recent years. Consequently, GOI has responded on two fronts to support states and cities in developing action plans. Ministry of health and family welfare has released a National Action Plan on Heat-Related Illnesses to capacitate hospitals to manage heat-affected patients.

Additionally, the National Heat-Related Illness and Death Surveillance system has been put in place to track health impacts. However, its data is generally not made public. For instance, we still do not have official figures for heat-related deaths in 2024.

NDMA, on the other hand, is assisting states, districts and cities in developing Heat Action Plans (HAPs). Recently, NDMA has asked all states, including those in the Himalayas, to develop HAPs and implement preventive measures. Reportedly, NDMA plans to introduce 300 more HAPs at the city level. HAPs are now the primary tool for mitigating the impact of heatwaves in cities and districts. But how effectively are these action plans being implemented, and can they save lives and livelihoods?

To find the answer, my colleagues and I undertook a comprehensive assessment of HAPs in nine cities and five districts, including Delhi, Gorakhpur, Vellore, Bhubaneswar and Surat. Our assessment reveals serious shortcomings in the design and implementation of HAPs. Here are the three key findings:

  • HAPs are generic action plans. They fail to consider local factors such as urban heat islands, critical infra, resource availability, and other built environment factors. Hence, most HAPs cannot accurately assess how heatwaves will affect people, infra and essential services. Without localised impact assessments, authorities cannot correctly map vulnerable populations or prepare for cascading failures in critical infra such as water supply, energy, transportation, and public health services. This is precisely what happened in 2024 in many cities when electricity and water supply failed and hospitals were overburdened.
  • Addressing heatwaves requires upgraded infra — cooling shelters, water access points, emergency medical facilities and 24/7 electricity supply — as well as additional resources and personnel. No Indian city has mapped out its resource requirements. Consequently, cities have not allocated dedicated funds for HAP implementation. For example, Delhi’s HAP does not have a budget, rendering it little more than paperwork.
  • The impact of heatwaves can be mitigated by reducing urban heat islands and promoting cool buildings. But NDMA guidelines lack a clear framework for integrating these strategies into HAPs. No Indian city has developed a comprehensive cooling strategy that includes building code revisions, sustainable urban design, and expanded access to cool public spaces.

From the study, it is clear that our approach to heatwave mitigation requires an urgent overhaul. We, therefore, have recommended three immediate steps for policymakers:

New classification system needed | The current definition of heatwaves is based solely on maximum day-time temperatures, ignoring crucial factors like humidity and night-time temperatures.Last year’s experience suggests that high night-time temperatures may have caused significant harm, as people could not recover from the day-time heat stress.

Similarly, the “Feels Like” temperature, which combines heat and humidity to provide a more accurate measure of heat stress, is not considered when issuing warnings. For instance, from June 20 to 26 last year, Delhi experienced seven consecutive days with a “Feels Like” temperature exceeding 50°C, which is considered hazardous. However, because the maximum day-time temperature remained below 40°C, IMD did not classify these days as official heatwave days. We need a new classification system that incorporates high day-time and night-time temperatures and the “Feels Like” temperature to trigger early warnings effectively.

Heatwaves as natural disasters | Unlike cyclones and floods, heatwaves are not officially classified as natural disasters under the Disaster Management Act, 2005. This prevents states from accessing crucial disaster relief funds. Recognising heatwaves as natural disasters will unlock resources and improve coordination across agencies.

Focused & legally binding solutions | NDMA must revise its guidelines to make HAPs actionable, city-specific and legally binding. This includes defining financial provisions, mandating infra upgrades, and integrating heat mitigation into urban planning. Cities must move beyond vague recommendations and develop real Heat and Cooling Action Plans (HCAPs) that focus on reducing temperatures, providing sustainable cooling solutions, and ensuring rescue and relief from the heat.

As the climate crisis intensifies, half-measures will no longer suffice. Heatwaves are now among the deadliest natural hazards facing the country. Without immediate and comprehensive reforms, the next heatwave will bring not just unbearable temperatures but also another avoidable tragedy.

The big challenge that road freight, India’s primary mode of transport, faces

Freight is essential to India’s growth, targeting a $30 trillion economy by 2047. Modernising freight, especially through EVs and ZE-MHDVs, can slash emissions and costs. However, small fleet operators face high adaptation costs, and marginalized communities risk displacement. A just, inclusive approach is vital for a sustainable, equitable transition, ensuring all benefit.

Freight is key to India’s growth, and crucial for trade, supply chains and jobs. As India aims for a $30 tn economy by 2047, modernising freight can cut costs, boost SMEs and drive expansion. But India’s primary mode of transport – road freight – faces a challenge. It accounts for 71% of the total freight volume, and is also responsible for 90% of the sector’s carbon emissions.

At the same time, clogged infrastructure is straining India’s road transport network, driving up logistics costs that are now 14% of GDP. PM Gati Shakti and other logistics policy initiatives aim at multimodal integration and reducing dependence on road freight through dedicated freight corridors, rail electrification and service offerings like roll-on, roll-off (RoRo).

The shift to EVs, especially zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty trucks (ZE-MHDVs), could transform road freight. With Tesla slated to enter India, we are already seeing a broader acceptance of EVs, boosting domestic manufacturing of batteries and components, and large-scale development of EV infrastructure. This shift could reduce emissions, lower costs and improve air quality, while advancing sustainability goals. But decarbonising freight must also consider justice, equity and inclusion – no just the environment. Electrification and ZE tech hold promise, but a just transition faces hurdles.

Costs of adopting electric trucks, for example, are high, and small fleet operators – who make up a substantial portion of the market – are particularly vulnerable. Higher upfront and operational costs for e-trucks, coupled with a lack of total cost of ownership parity for medium-duty trucks, threaten to leave small operators behind.

India’s informal auto component makers and low-skilled manufacturing workers, often from marginalised communities, risk being displaced as the demand for traditional vehicle parts diminishes.

Inadequate charging infra, congestion-led delays, unreliable grid capacity and poor road conditions exacerbate operational challenges for ZE trucks. For vulnerable groups such as women, LGBTQIA+ individuals and marginalised communities, unsafe work environments and exclusion from tech training programmes further compound the difficulties of adapting to a digitised, electrified freight system.

Informal truck scrapping and battery recycling pose health and environmental risks. By 2044, over 50 lakh trucks will need scrapping, adding to the e-waste burden.

Despite these challenges, the transition to ZETs offers substantial opportunities

Reduce harmful emissions, improving urban air quality and health outcomes.

Retrofitting existing diesel trucks with electric powertrains could extend their lifespan by up to 10 years, providing a more cost-effective alternative to purchasing new vehicles. This approach can help small businesses and fleet operators.

Cost of ownership for e-trucks is expected to be lower than that of diesel counterparts by 2030, particularly for larger vehicles. Lower fuel and maintenance costs, alongside falling prices of EV components, will make the electrification of freight more affordable, especially with the support of policies like the PM E-DRIVE initiative and the PLI scheme.

Targeted training programmes can open career opportunities for women and marginalised groups. Empowering these groups through skill development in e-truck maintenance, AI-based route optimisation and digital literacy will not only improve their economic opportunities but also foster a more inclusive workforce.

Improving working conditions for truck drivers through better ergonomics, safety protocols and reduced working hours will help address some of the sector’s most pressing issues, making the profession more aspirational and sustainable.

The path forward requires a comprehensive, just and inclusive framework to guide the transition to green freight in India – a framework built around multiple outcomes:

  • Greening, including green manufacturing, circular economy practices, retrofitting, and greening of warehousing and logistics.
  • Improving freight mobility by ensuring robust infra is available in hinterlands, innovations are accessible to small operators and SMEs, and multimodal integration is achieved for ZETs.
  • Ensuring equity and diversity so as not to leave vulnerable societal segments behind.
  • Enhancing the resilience of the sector to adapt to changing technologies while protecting worker rights.

India’s freight sector is at a crossroads, and the decision to decarbonise trucking is not just a technological shift but a chance to reimagine the future of green logistics and the economy. The transition to ZETs holds the potential to reduce emissions, lower logistics costs in the long term and create a more inclusive workforce.

However, to unlock these benefits, GoI, businesses and civil society must work together to ensure that the transition is just and equitable for everyone – from citizens, shippers, small freight operators and logistics service providers, to small component manufacturers and the entire workforce.

A balanced, multimodal approach can drive both economic growth and decarbonisation. Urban congestion may require innovations like underground freight transport and optimised ZET use. With integration, fairness and sustainability, India can build a freight system that fuels its ambitions while uplifting all citizens.

A missed opportunity for social justice in mining regions

Urgent reforms required to make District Mineral Foundations an instrument for social justice.

The District Mineral Foundation (DMF) was conceived as a transformative institution to ensure those who bear the brunt of mining activities also share its benefits. Set up in March 2015 under the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, the DMF is designed to channel mining revenues to improve the lives and livelihoods of affected communities. However, a detailed assessment of 23 states and key DMF districts by me and my colleagues paints a concerning picture.

While DMFs have collected over Rs 1.03 lakh crore, only about 40% has been utilised. Worse, much of this spending has been directed towards capital-intensive projects — roads, bridges, buildings, parking lots, and water pipelines — that should ideally be funded by state and central government budgets. The projects that matter most to mining-affected communities — livelihoods, skills, education, health, and support for small businesses — have received minimal investments.

With India’s continued economic growth and increasing mineral demand for the energy transition and net-zero goals, this fund will continue to expand. Our projections indicate Rs 2.5-3 lakh crore could be collected over the next 10 years. If this money is utilised prudently, it can transform the lives of millions of India’s poorest people. We must therefore ask: Will the DMF be yet another noble initiative that failed to deliver, or will it evolve into a truly participatory and people-centric institution?

Intent vs reality

DMFs came into being after decade-long discussions on the issue of “resource curse”. The fact that India’s richest mining districts are inhabited by some of its poorest people prompted the government to set up the DMF as a non-profit trust. Mining firms are required to contribute an amount equal to 10-30% of the royalty to DMFs for investments to improve the lives of affected people. In September 2015, the government launched the Pradhan Mantri Khanij Kshetra Kalyan Yojana (PMKKKY) to guide DMFs on planning, prioritising, and utilising the funds.

DMFs are present in 645 districts, but the funds are largely concentrated in 50. In fact, the top 21 districts, which have each collected at least Rs 1,000 crore, account for nearly two-thirds of the total DMF accruals. These districts are largely tribal-dominated with high multi-dimensional poverty.

Our assessment shows that the biggest challenge with DMF implementation is governance. DMFs in all districts essentially function as extensions of the district collectorate, with district collectors/magistrates chairing both the governing council (GC) and managing committee (MC), undermining the accountability of the institution. The GC and MC are also dominated by officials, MPs, and state legislators, with minimal representation of the affected communities despite legal provisions for their participation. Worse still, none of the districts have identified mining-affected people, making it easier for DMF projects to be dictated by district administrations rather than community needs.

Investment planning is also unstructured in most districts. While annual and perspective planning is mandated under the PMKKKY, no DMF has developed a structured annual plan or published a five-year perspective plan. Most projects are approved in an ad-hoc manner without thorough need assessments involving gram sabhas, another legal infringement.

The failure of the institution has translated into the misallocation of funds. As mentioned above, infrastructure projects have received the largest share of DMF spending, locking the districts into expensive servicing and maintenance.

Consider Jharkhand, where over 40% of the funds have been allocated to large piped drinking water projects. But these projects are plagued by delays and operational inefficiencies, with little investment in decentralised water management solutions that could sustainably serve affected communities. Similarly, in Chhattisgarh, a significant portion of education funds has been spent on building schools and hostels, but without corresponding investments in teachers, learning material, or digital education infrastructure.

The lack of investment in human capital is particularly concerning. Our analysis shows that less than 5% of DMF funds have been spent on employment generation initiatives. In mining districts like Dhanbad and Kendujhar, where thousands of workers have lost livelihoods due to mechanisation and mine closures, DMFs have failed to provide meaningful alternatives.

Need for urgent reform

Despite the shortcomings, the DMF remains the only hope to alleviate poverty and bring development to mining-affected regions. To make it an effective instrument for social justice, the following reforms are critical:

Reform governance: DMFs should be independent, community-led institutions rather than extensions of district administrations. Mining-affected communities must have at least one-third representation in the GC and MC.

Participatory planning: All DMFs should be required to develop five-year perspective plans based on comprehensive community consultations. These should align with district development goals but prioritise the needs of the people.

Fund utilisation in high-priority sectors: The revised PMKKKY guidelines should be strictly enforced to ensure at least 70% of DMF funds are spent on critical needs like healthcare, education, livelihoods, and skill development. State governments must be held accountable for aligning their DMF spending with national guidelines.

Independent oversight: DMFs should be subject to mandatory social audits and financial reviews by independent agencies. The Comptroller and Auditor General should conduct periodic evaluations of DMF spending and impact.

Endowment fund: Many coal-mining districts are facing a future of declining production. DMFs should create endowment funds to support economic diversification and just transition strategies for workers and communities affected by mine closures.

Improve transparency and accountability: Every DMF should maintain an up-to-date website with real-time information on fund allocations, expenditures, and project progress. A grievance redress mechanism should be established to address community concerns about DMF spending.

A decade after its creation, the DMF remains a work in progress. The problem is not a lack of funds but a lack of vision and political will to ensure the DMF serves its intended purpose. For the DMF to truly fulfil its mandate, we need urgent, systemic changes that put communities at the centre of decision-making. Anything less would be a betrayal of the very people the DMF was meant to serve.

The Mahakumbh of environment

Given the powerful sway of faith, it must work together with science and technology to repair humanity’s broken relationship with nature.

Faith must unite with science to heal humanity’s bond with nature.

The Mahakumbh Mela 2025 has left an indelible mark on history. According to official data, more than 650 million people participated in this monumental event — equivalent to the combined population of the US and Indonesia, the third- and fourth-most populous countries in the world. This staggering figure cements the Mahakumbh as the largest human gathering ever recorded. Yet, beyond the numbers lies an experience that cannot be explained through statistics — the palpable energy of faith, the profound sense of unity, and a seemingly primal instinct that drew millions across thousands of kilometres for a fleeting moment of spiritual renewal. To witness the Mahakumbh was to feel humanity at its most elemental.

However, the event was not without its challenges. Many devotees died in a tragic stampede, logistical hurdles tested organisers, and concerns about water quality lingered. Still, the Mahakumbh concluded with remarkable order, safety, and a surprising degree of environmental care.

The grounds were strikingly free of plastic litter, open defecation, or festering garbage piles. Thousands of mobile toilets and three temporary sewage treatment plants were installed to ensure proper sanitation. Additionally, the mela was illuminated with solar power and single-use plastics were banned.

Even more astonishingly, there were no disease outbreaks, which might have been expected at a gathering of such magnitude. Charity and compassion were evident everywhere, with numerous organisations providing shelter and food to countless pilgrims. It is difficult to imagine any other nation managing such a colossal convergence with similar care and generosity. But as the last pilgrims depart, a pressing question looms: Can such a gathering of faith endure in a world increasingly battered by climate change and environmental degradation?

The fact is that the Ganga and Yamuna are already under grave threats. Despite four decades of river-cleaning efforts through the Ganga Action Plan (started in 1986), Yamuna Action Plan (1993) and the Namami Gange Programme (2014), a little more than half of the sewage entering the rivers is treated, while chemical-laden agricultural run-off continues to degrade water quality. On top of this, melting glaciers in the Himalayas, coupled with erratic rainfall — accelerated by global warming — is projected to further reduce both the quality and quantity of water in these rivers and their tributaries. These persistent and emerging environmental concerns raise serious doubts about the continuity of a tradition that has thrived for millennia.

This tension between reverence and sustainability took centre stage at a groundbreaking conclave during the Mahakumbh Mela on February 16. Titled “Faith of Kumbh and Climate Change,” the conclave brought together religious leaders, scientists, policymakers, and civil society to discuss the role of faith in addressing climate and environmental crises. Topics such as environmental management during religious congregations and greener places of worship were also explored.

The initiative, organised by the environment department of the Uttar Pradesh government and iFOREST, sought to merge the sacred with the sustainable, recognising that religious leaders and faith-based organisations — armed with moral authority and vast grassroots networks — could be vital allies in combatting climate change and environmental degradation.

The power of faith

India is a deeply religious country, and faith holds an unparalleled sway over the majority of its people. It has shaped, and continues to shape, values and behaviours in ways that science and government policies have struggled to achieve.

The fact is that the teachings of all major religions provide guidance on environmental preservation. Hinduism and other Indic faiths consider nature divine, making its protection a sacred duty. Abrahamic religions, too, emphasise stewardship over God’s creation. But these teachings are rarely reinterpreted for the present or emphasised in sermons and religious gatherings. While some spiritual leaders have championed environmental causes, sustainability remains a low priority for most faith-based institutions. Imagine, however, if every sermon and religious gathering urged followers to shun plastic, conserve water, plant trees, install renewable energy, and embrace sustainable lifestyles. Such shifts, rooted in religious duty, could ignite a grassroots revolution.

At the conclave, this potential of faith-based organisations in raising environmental awareness, educating communities, and driving meaningful action garnered support from all. The need to integrate science with religious teachings to tackle the environmental crisis was also endorsed. Many religious leaders also emphasised the necessity of making the Mahakumbh more sustainable. As one prominent spiritual leader pointed out: “If we do not care for the environment, the Mahakumbh of the future will take place on the sands of Prayagraj, not in the waters of the Triveni.”

The Mahakumbh Declaration

A key outcome of the conclave was the Mahakumbh Declaration on Climate Change. Under this, the UP government has pledged to “green” religious institutions and congregations across the state. The state envisions temples, mosques, and shrines becoming models of sustainability. The state’s pledge includes funding faith-based organisations to promote environmental and climate education, campaigns, and practices.

It is important to recognise that the environmental crisis, including the climate crisis, is not just a technological or economic challenge but also deeply spiritual. It reflects humanity’s broken relationship with nature, a disconnect that faith, science, and technology must work together to repair. And in this, faith may well be our most powerful ally.

बाकू में क्यों नहीं बन पाई बात, भारत ने लगाया हेरफेर का आरोप

अजरबैजान के बाकू में हालिया संयुक्त राष्ट्र जलवायु सम्मेलन (COP 29) में जो जलवायु वित्तपोषण समझौता हुआ, उससे इतिहास की एक बड़ी प्रसिद्ध बात याद आती है। 1942 में महात्मा गांधी ने क्रिप्स मिशन की आलोचना करते हुए इसके प्रस्ताव को डूबते हुए किसी बैंक में आया ‘एक आने का चेक’ बताया था। दोनों बातों में बस एक फर्क है- महात्मा गांधी ने इस मिशन के प्रस्ताव को एक आने का चेक कहकर रिजेक्ट कर दिया था, जबकि आलोचना के बावजूद कॉप के वित्तपोषण समझौते को भारत सहित कई देशों ने अपना लिया है। यह मंजूरी बताती है कि जलवायु संकट दूर करने में संयुक्त राष्ट्र फ्रेमवर्क कन्वेंशन ऑन क्लाइमेट चेंज (UNFCCC) सहित बाकी दुनिया ने जो कोशिशें की हैं, वे बड़े लेवल पर फेल हो गई हैं।

नहीं मानी मांग

बाकू सम्मेलन में विकासशील देशों ने 2030 तक क्लाइमेट इमरजेंसी से निपटने के लिए विकसित देशों से सालाना 1.3 ट्रिलियन डॉलर मांगे थे। प्रस्ताव में कम से कम 500 बिलियन डॉलर की सरकारी रकम शामिल थी, बाकी प्राइवेट सेक्टर से रियायती दरों पर दिए जाने की मांग थी। दो हफ्तों की विवादास्पद बातचीत के बाद अंतिम समझौते में विकसित देशों ने 2035 तक केवल 300 बिलियन डॉलर सालाना देने की बात कही। इसमें सरकारी पैसे का कोई जिक्र नहीं है, बल्कि यह लिखा है कि यह किसी भी स्रोत से आ सकता है।

धुंधला वादा

पैसे जुटाने के स्रोतों के मामले में यह समझौता बेहद धुंधला वादा करता है। इससे भी खराब बात यह है कि यह समझौता विकसित देशों को विश्व बैंक जैसे मल्टिलैटरल डिवेलपमेंट बैंकों से जलवायु संबंधी कर्ज को मनी पूल के हिस्से के रूप में शामिल करने की अनुमति देता है। यानी विकसित देशों पर 2035 तक वर्तमान 100 बिलियन डॉलर सालाना से ज्यादा धनराशि देने का कोई दायित्व नहीं है।

क्या करेंगे ट्रंप 

इस समझौते का राजनीतिक भविष्य भी अनिश्चित है, क्योंकि इस बात की बहुत कम संभावना है कि बाइडन प्रशासन ने जलवायु को लेकर जो भी प्रतिबद्धताएं की हैं, उनका ट्रंप एडमिनिस्ट्रेशन भी सम्मान करेगा। लब्बोलुआब यह है कि बाकू समझौता बताता है कि विकसित देश जलवायु परिवर्तन के समाधान से अपना हाथ झाड़ना चाहते हैं और जलवायु संकट की बढ़ती लागतों का सारा बोझ विकासशील देशों पर थोपना चाहते हैं।

गलत उम्मीद

वैसे, इन सब चीजों से बहुत ताज्जुब नहीं होना चाहिए। 2009 में विकसित देशों ने 2020 तक क्लाइमेट फाइनेंस में सालाना 100 अरब डॉलर देने का वादा किया था, मगर पूरा किया 2022 तक। इसमें भी लगभग 70% हिस्सा मार्केट की महंगी दरों पर दिया कर्ज था। इससे विकासशील राष्ट्रों पर कर्ज का बोझ और भी बढ़ गया। उन देशों से खरबों डॉलर की उम्मीद करना हमेशा से ही अवास्तविक था, जो अरबों डॉलर देने में ही आनाकानी कर रहे थे। अब विकासशील देशों को क्लाइमेट फाइनेंस को लेकर नए उपाय करने होंगे।

कमजोरों से वसूली

अब वैश्विक वित्तीय प्रणाली में मौलिक सुधारों की जरूरत है ताकि विकासशील देश जलवायु संकट से निपटने के काबिल बन सकें और सभी देशों को ठीक से सहयोग देने के लायक बनाने के लिए UNFCCC में सुधार किया जा सके। आज की वैश्विक वित्तीय प्रणाली कमजोर देशों के खिलाफ है। उदाहरण के लिए, गरीब अफ्रीकी देश कर्ज पर जिन ब्याज दरों का भुगतान करते हैं वे अमेरिका द्वारा भुगतान की जाने वाली दरों से चार गुना अधिक और धनी यूरोपीय देशों द्वारा भुगतान की जाने वाली दरों से आठ गुना अधिक हैं।

बढ़ता बोझ

संयुक्त राष्ट्र पर्यावरण कार्यक्रम की एक रिपोर्ट बताती है कि जलवायु संबंधी चुनौतियों ने पहले ही 25 कमजोर विकासशील देशों को मिलने वाला कर्ज महंगा कर रखा है। इन देशों को सिर्फ सरकारी कर्ज पर 10 वर्षों में अतिरिक्त 40 बिलियन डॉलर के ब्याज का भुगतान करना होता है। इसका मतलब है कि विकासशील देश आज के जलवायु जोखिमों के चलते धनी देशों और उनके बैंकों को करोड़ों डॉलर अलग से दे रहे हैं। यह बोझ अगले दशक में दोगुना हो जाएगा। यानी इन देशों पर जलवायु संबंधी चुनौतियों का फायदा उठाया जा रहा है।

ठंडा पड़ा अजेंडा 

इस अन्याय को दूर करने के लिए भारत ने अपनी G20 अध्यक्षता के दौरान कई बेहतरीन प्रस्ताव दिए थे। इसके अलावा वर्षों से कई और प्रस्ताव वैश्विक संस्थानों के अजेंडे में हैं। ये सुधार लागू होंगे, तभी विकासशील देशों की विकसित देशों पर असंगत, अन्यापूर्ण और अपर्याप्त धन की निर्भरता कम होगी और वे अपने संसाधनों का उपयोग करके राहत पा सकेंगे।

भारत का आरोप 

वैसे, UNFCCC के भीतर भी सुधार जरूरी हैं। बाकू में भारत ने COP अध्यक्षता और UNFCCC सचिवालय पर वित्त समझौते को अपनाने में होने वाली प्रक्रिया में हेरफेर करने का आरोप लगाया, जो संस्थान में गहरे अविश्वास को दर्शाता है। इसके अलावा UNFCCC की कार्यवाही में फॉसिल फ्यूल बिजनेस के बढ़ते प्रभाव से इसकी विश्वसनीयता और प्रासंगिकता को खतरा है। सचाई यह है कि UNFCCC अब केवल जानकारी जुटाने, उनका हिसाब करके आगे बढ़ाने का ही मंच रह गया है।

कई फ्रेमवर्क बने

अब ऐसे में किया क्या जाए? एक तो UNFCCC को छोटी-छोटी ऐसी मीटिंगों में बदला जाए, जहां समाधान निकले और जहां देश अपने वादों के लिए जवाबदेह हों। किसी सिंगल ग्लोबल फ्रेमवर्क पर निर्भर रहने की जगह अगर वाकई बदलाव लाना है तो ऊर्जा, परिवहन, कृषि, उद्योग वगैरह पर कई वैश्विक और क्षेत्रीय मंच बनाने होंगे।

ब्राजील पर दारोमदार

बाकू सम्मेलन ने इंटरनैशनल क्लाइमेट फ्रेमवर्क कमजोरियां तो दिखाई ही हैं, यह भी उजागर किया है कि इसे लेकर देशों के बीच कितना गहरा अविश्वास है। अब सारा दारोमदार COP30 के मेजबान ब्राजील पर है कि वह भरोसा बहाल करते हुए सार्थक प्रगति करे। ऐसा इसलिए भी, क्योंकि जलवायु परिवर्तन के खिलाफ जो लड़ाई चल रही है, वह ठोस सुधारों के बगैर पूरी नहीं होनी है, अलबत्ता निष्क्रिय होने का उस पर जोखिम जरूर है।

The COP cop out that should surprise no one

Baku conference has shown up the glaring inadequacy of the international climate framework and the deep mistrust among nations. Bad news for the fight against climate change

Mahatma Gandhi’s famous critique of the Cripps Mission in 1942—describing its proposal as “a post-dated cheque on a crashing bank”—perfectly captures the essence of the climate finance deal adopted at COP29, the recent UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan. However, there is one crucial difference: while Cripp’s figurative cheque was decisively rejected, the Baku finance deal, despite criticism from several nations, including India, was adopted. This highlights the broader failures of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and global efforts to address the climate crisis.

The Baku conference began with developing countries demanding $1.3 trillion in annual funding from developed nations by 2030 to tackle the climate emergency. Their proposal called for at least $500 billion in public funding, with the remainder provided as concessional private finance.

Yet, after two weeks of contentious negotiations, developed countries committed to only $300 billion annually by 2035, with no binding pledge for public funding. Instead, the deal vaguely promises to source funds from “a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources.”

Worse still, the agreement permits developed countries to include climate-related loans from multilateral development banks, such as the World Bank, as part of the funding pool. This means developed nations are under no obligation to increase funding beyond the current $100 billion annually until 2035. Moreover, they retain the freedom to count virtually any climate-related financial flow to developing countries as part of their contributions.

The political future of this deal is equally uncertain, as there is little chance that the incoming Trump administration will honour the commitments made by the Biden administration.

In essence, the Baku deal offers little more than a continuation of the status quo, allowing developed nations to sidestep meaningful financial obligations while leaving developing countries to shoulder the escalating costs of the climate crisis.

However, this is not surprising. In 2009, developed countries pledged $100 billion annually in climate finance by 2020. They met this target in 2022, and even then, nearly 70% of the funds were provided as loans at market rates, burdening developing nations with debt. Expecting trillions from nations that struggled to deliver billions was always unrealistic. So, how should developing countries secure meaningful climate finance?

The path forward requires fundamental  reforms in the  global financial system to empower developing countries to deal with the climate crisis and revamping the UNFCCC to enable effective international collaboration.

The current global financial system is stacked against vulnerable nations. Poor African countries, for instance, pay interest rates on loans that are four times higher than those paid by the U.S. and up to eight times higher than those paid by wealthy European countries. This disparity is being exacerbated by the climate crisis.

A report by the UN Environment Programme, Climate Change and the Cost of Capital in Developing Countries, found that climate vulnerability has already increased the average cost of debt in 25 vulnerable developing countries by 117 basis points. This translates to an additional $40 billion in interest payments over 10 years on government debt in these countries alone. This means developing nations are currently paying hundreds of billions of dollars to wealthy countries and their banks due to climate risks. The report predicts that this financial burden will double over the next decade. In effect, the current financial system is profiting from their climate vulnerability.

To address this injustice, several proposals, including those advanced during India’s G20 presidency, have been on the agenda for years. These include measures like debt crisis management, multilateral development bank reforms, risk mitigation programmes, and blended finance strategies. Implementing these reforms would enable developing countries to invest more in mitigation and adaptation using their own resources.   

Reforms within the UNFCCC are equally urgent. At Baku, India accused the COP Presidency and the UNFCCC Secretariat of manipulating the process to secure the adoption of the finance deal, reflecting a deep trust deficit in the institution. Additionally, the growing influence of the fossil fuel industry in UNFCCC proceedings threatens its credibility and relevance.

The reality is that under the Paris Agreement, all countries are now on their own to mitigate, adapt and pay for the costs of climate impacts. The UNFCCC is now simply a platform to collect, synthesize and disseminate information. It doesn’t have the tools to drive global collective action to combat climate change. So, persisting with UNFCCC in the present form is counterproductive.

There are many ideas on the table including making UNFCCC a smaller solution-driven forum where countries report their progress and are held accountable to their pledges. Other suggestions include establishing multiple sectoral and regional platforms, such as on energy, transportation, agriculture, industry etc., rather than relying on a single global framework.

The Baku conference has laid bare the glaring weaknesses of the international climate framework and the deep mistrust among nations. It is now up to Brazil, the host of COP30, to restore trust and drive meaningful progress. Without decisive reforms, the global fight against climate change risks being mired in inadequacy and inaction, with all the attendant hazards for life on earth.

 

A Trillion-Dollar Dilemma: War Budgets vs Climate Funds

It was a grim reality check that the world prioritises fortifying borders over securing a liveable planet.

In an era defined by the twin existential crises of security and survival, two pledges stand as examples of human ambition and the competing narratives in 2024.

On one side is NATO’s defence spending of over $1.4 trillion reported in 2024 (with most members stepping up on their war spending with a floor of 2 percent of their GDP) – an amount steeped in the urgency of geopolitical tensions and an evolving war landscape.

On the other is the global demand to mobilise $1.3 trillion for climate action in developing nations – a lifeline for countries most vulnerable to the ravages of climate change, yet least responsible for its causes.

Two Fronts in the Fight for Better Life

The proponents of the NATO pledge argue that in an era of resurgent authoritarianism, territorial disputes, and warfare, military investment is not a luxury but a necessity.

The war in Ukraine has been a reminder for many countries that peace cannot be taken for granted, and deterrence requires resources.

To NATO allies, this is about preserving sovereignty, democracy, and the global rules-based order – a narrative that resonates deeply in a fragmented world.

They rallied for a $1.3 trillion climate finance pledge by the developed countries, which echoed, not only a call for delivering on climate action, but also responding to justice.

These nations face threats of supercharged storms, floods, and droughts, that threaten to erase communities and economies.

Their call is simple yet profound: the industrialised world, which grew wealthy through carbon-intensive development, bears a moral responsibility to fund their transition to greener futures and build resilience against the climate crisis.

At Baku, various developing countries including India, indicated the urgency of climate financing to save the lives and livelihoods of millions of people who are among the most economically insolvent.

The flow of finances for strengthening adaptation measures for these people is extremely important, not only to prevent them from slipping into further distress, but also to ensure justice and equal opportunity in a greener economy.

The requirement for this is substantial, as both mitigation and adaptation measures are costly to put in place.

For example, India’s Economic Survey report this year noted that the country’s adaptation expenditure in 2021-2022 was about Rs 13.35 lakh crore, which amounted to about 5.6 percent of the country’s GDP.

At COP29, India called for a boost of in adaptation finance, indicating that building adaptation capital could rise to over $854 billion.

The Geopolitical Dilemma of the Urgent vs the Essential

The simultaneous existence of these figures reveals a broader geopolitical tension: the challenge of reconciling the urgent with the essential.

Many within the corridors of Baku’s COP pavilion argue that defence spending highlights a paradox: resources can be swiftly mobilised for war, yet climate action commitments often languish unfulfilled.

In 2009, developed countries pledged to mobilise $100 billion annually in climate finance by 2020, a target that remained unmet for the longest time. Even when it came, a large proportion (over 69 percent) was in the form of loans that added to the debt burden of many developing countries.

Therefore, skepticism abounds over the controversial New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) to scale up financing to developing countries to at least $1.3 trillion per year by 2035, in which developed countries have pledged to take the lead to mobilise $300 billion.

However, on the other hand, it is only likely that the defenders of defence spending will argue that without security, there can be no climate action.

We knew what caused air pollution 25 years ago – but governments still won’t act

Acknowledging the true impact and sources of our pollution crisis is the first step toward meaningful action

A quarter-century ago, over 200 scientists from the US, Europe, the Maldives, and India came together to study the haze over the Indian Ocean. Led by atmospheric scientist V Ramanathan of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in California, the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) undertook intensive field observations using aircraft, ships, surface stations, and satellites. They discovered a giant brown layer of cloud hanging over much of the Indian Subcontinent and the Indian Ocean between October and February, which they termed the Indian Ocean Brown Cloud or Asian Brown Cloud. INDOEX revealed that this layer was primarily created by the burning of biomass in fields and homes, as well as fossil fuels like coal in industries, and that it traveled thousands of kilometres. The study also found that the haze significantly affected regional temperatures, precipitation patterns, and ground-level pollution, reducing agricultural productivity and causing widespread respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.

When the UN Environment Programme published the INDOEX report in 2002, some prominent Indian scientists called it sensationalist and argued that the “Indian Ocean” or “Asian” Brown Cloud was not unique to India or Asia and should, therefore, be renamed. Because of their opposition, the name was changed to “Atmospheric Brown Cloud with a Focus on Asia”. Governments in South Asia ignored the report.

This episode underscores two key points: First, the causes of air pollution have been known for at least 25 years and second, we have been avoiding the issue for just as long. By injecting ideology and politics into what should be a straightforward matter, we continue to muddy the waters. Debates over rich versus poor, farmers versus city-dwellers, SUVs versus cook stoves, and Diwali versus stubble burning have stalled real action.

The result of this obfuscation is that today, from Amritsar in Punjab to Agartala in Tripura, an arc of brown haze, up to 3 km thick, has engulfed the Indo-Gangetic plains (IGP), impacting lives, livelihoods, and the economy. While pollution levels are severe in the IGP, air quality is poor across the country. Most Indian cities fail to meet national ambient air quality standards, which are quite lenient compared to WHO’s health-based guidelines. The primary cause of this pollution remains the same as what Ramanathan and his colleagues identified 25 years ago.

In a study conducted by my colleagues and me in 2023, we estimated that India emits about 52 lakh tonnes of PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 microns in size, which has high health impacts) annually, excluding dust from natural and manmade sources. Around 48 per cent of these emissions come from biomass use — such as agricultural residue, fuelwood, and dung cakes — for cooking and heating in homes. Stubble burning contributes an additional 6.5 per cent, making biomass burning responsible for 55 per cent of total PM2.5 emissions.

Industry and power plants are the second-largest emitters, contributing about 37 per cent, primarily from coal burning. The transport sector, a major focus of air pollution mitigation, contributes about 7 per cent of the emissions, while the remainder comes from sources such as open garbage burning.

These findings are not surprising if we follow the dictum: What we burn the most, pollutes the most. In India, we burn about 220 crore tonnes of fuel and waste. Of this, 85 per cent is coal and biomass, while 15 per cent comprises other fuels such as petrol, diesel, and natural gas. Naturally, most of our pollution is due to burning biomass and coal. Additionally, dust from roads, construction sites, and barren land contributes to particulate pollution, especially PM 10.

To address air pollution decisively, we must follow a scientific approach, and move beyond optics like odd-even, construction bans and artificial rain, and instead focus on the real solution – energy transition. Shifting households to LPG, biogas, or electricity for cooking and heating will eliminate a significant proportion of PM 2.5 emissions. It will also prevent 8,00,000 premature deaths, caused by exposure to PM 2.5 inside homes. Though challenging, this is achievable through targeted policy initiatives like a new PM Ujjwala Yojana that provides sufficient incentives to encourage low-income households to move away from traditional biomass.

Similarly, energy transition in industry, especially in MSMEs, along with rigorous monitoring and enforcement, is necessary to reduce pollution. A programme encouraging MSMEs to adopt cleaner fuel and technologies, such as electric boilers and furnaces, could curb emissions significantly. Law enforcement of stringent pollution norms is a basic necessity for larger industries and thermal power plants. For that, the modernisation of pollution control boards is urgently required.

On the other hand, eliminating stubble burning is essential to decrease severe and hazardous pollution days in October and November. Technological interventions along with incentives/ disincentives can solve this problem. The simplest technological solution is to modify or mandate combine harvesters that cut closer to the ground, like manual harvesting, leaving minimal stubble behind. Additionally, an incentive of Rs 1,000 per acre — similar to what the Haryana government provides — could encourage sustainable stubble management, along with fines and exclusion from government schemes for those who continue to burn.

As far as automobiles are concerned, scaling up electric vehicles and public transport is crucial. This will need clear targets for EV adoption and the promotion of public transport as a lifestyle choice. Lastly, to reduce local sources of pollution — dust from roads and construction, garbage burning, and traffic congestion — local bodies must be strengthened and held accountable.

Real progress will only begin once we accept the science. Acknowledging the true impact and sources of our pollution crisis is the first step toward meaningful action.

COP: Count US Out, Up Your Climate Game

Trump’s re-election is a stark wake-up call for all nations. They must increase their climate finance and mitigation targets for 2035 and beyond without relying on Washington

The 29th UN Climate Conference (COP29), held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22, has opened under ominous circumstances. The re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. president looms over the event, reviving memories of his first term, when he withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, halted climate funding, and significantly slowed international climate progress. During those years, the U.S. largely stood on the sidelines, often obstructing negotiations through proxies. Aside from partial progress at COP24 in Katowice in 2018—where the “rulebook” for implementing the Paris Agreement was advanced—Trump’s presidency was largely a setback for climate action.

Now, as global leaders gather in Baku, they face the possibility of similar inaction and obstruction from the U.S. The pressing question, therefore, is whether the world can afford another four years of inaction. If not, what strategies should countries pursue to advance international climate goals independently of the U.S.?

Falling Short: Recent data from international agencies reveal that, despite record-breaking investments in clean energy, the world remains off track to meet the Paris Agreement targets. In 2023, nearly $2 trillion was invested in clean energy projects—almost twice the amount invested in new oil, gas, and coal infrastructure. Yet, current policies and investments are leading the world toward a dangerous trajectory, with global temperatures likely to increase by more than 3°C.

This shortfall is largely due to the inadequate emission reduction efforts by G20 countries, which collectively account for roughly 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions. A UN Environment Programme assessment shows that several major economies—including the U.S., Canada, Japan, Australia, China, and Saudi Arabia—are not on course to meet their 2030 emission-reduction pledges, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). While countries like India are projected to meet their NDCs, their overall emissions are expected to increase as they expand energy use to support basic development needs.

Against this backdrop, COP29 in Baku must tackle three interlinked priorities: scaling up climate finance, establishing effective carbon market rules, and setting the next phase of NDCs for 2035 and beyond.

Climate Finance: Dubbed the “Finance COP,” COP29’s primary focus is on climate finance. The conference is tasked with setting a new climate finance target, known as the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), to support vulnerable and developing countries in combating climate change. This NCQG is intended to replace the previous target established in 2009, when developed nations committed to providing $100 billion annually by 2020. However, independent assessments reveal that this $100 billion goal was only reached in 2022, two years late, and much of the funding was in the form of loans, which has exacerbated debt burdens in many developing countries. The current need for climate finance is now far greater than in 2009.

A recent UN evaluation estimates that developing countries require around $500 billion annually, with some other projections suggesting that over $1 trillion is needed each year. At COP29 in Baku, developed countries must agree on the scope of the NCQG in a way that meets the needs of developing nations. Yet, with Trump’s U.S. unlikely to contribute significantly, the question remains: What will other developed countries offer? Will Baku see only a symbolic financial pledge, or will it result in substantial funding to spur global climate action?

Carbon Trading: Closely tied to climate finance is the contentious issue of carbon markets. In recent years, carbon markets have been a focal point in negotiations due to their mixed impact. On the one hand, they have potential to generate funding for climate mitigation; on the other, issues like fraudulent accounting and greenwashing have undermined their credibility. These concerns stalled agreement on carbon market rules in the past few COPs, but Baku is expected to finalize and operationalize these rules to restore trust and ensure integrity.

Setting New Targets: While many countries are not on track to meet their 2030 NDCs, new targets for 2035 are required by early 2025. COP29 is likely the last major opportunity to clarify expectations for post-2030 climate targets. These goals, however, are intertwined with outcomes on climate finance and carbon markets. An ambitious NCQG would allow developing countries to commit to higher targets, while a robust and transparent carbon market could empower developed countries to set more ambitious targets through emissions offsetting.

While COP29 in Baku is an important milestone, the odds of achieving an ambitious outcome appear slim considering the likely backtracking by the US. In addition, Azerbaijan, a significant oil and gas producer, is not known for climate leadership, so expectations must be tempered.

The key question facing the world now is how to drive global climate action without relying heavily on the US. I believe that over-reliance on U.S. leadership has been the main reason for the shortcomings of global climate progress. The US has never been a climate leader. Since 1992, when the first global climate agreement was signed, the US emissions have only reduced by 3%, meaning they have remained virtually unchanged in the last three decades. Furthermore, the U.S. has not been a major contributor to climate finance, often falling short on its commitments.

Trump’s re-election should, therefore, be a stark wake-up call, highlighting the need for a more diverse, multipolar approach to climate leadership. Just as global power structures are evolving into a multipolar landscape, climate governance must follow suit. Countries like China, India, the EU, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil are well-positioned to champion climate action within their respective regions, fostering a more resilient and collective approach.

By distributing climate leadership across multiple nations, the world has a better chance to unify and make substantial progress on this existential crisis, without being stalled by any one country’s political shifts.

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