How to avoid capital error

With Delhi’s air quality index (AQI) rising to 235 on Wednesday, its highest level since June 19, pollution season is here again. In what’s ominous, air quality dipping to “poor” category in Sep is a first in six years. As citizens of the national capital brace for the dreaded winter haze, Delhi govt has unveiled a 21-point action plan to curb pollution.

The action plan includes drone-monitoring of hotspots, special task force, work-from-home policy, voluntary vehicular restrictions, and a green award. To combat severe air pollution, the odd-even vehicle rationing scheme and even artificial rain are proposed.

Last year, too, AAP govt had introduced a 15-point action plan, which was completely ineffective. In fact, the air pollution season of 2023-24 was one of the worst in recent memory, with an average AQI of 304, compared to 280 in 2022-23 and 278 in 2021-22.

For over a decade, Delhi has experimented with various pollution control measures – odd-even schemes, smog towers, water cannons, tree plantations, and graded response action plan (GRAP), which restricts industry, construction, and vehicle operations, among others. Yet, the city continues to suffer.

Why Delhi’s plan won’t work

This year’s plan like those before, is un likely to deliver the clean air Delhi needs. And this is because these measures do not target the most significant pollution sources. Delhi, which makes up only 2.7% of NCR, lies in one of the most urbanised, industrialised, and agricultural regions in the world. Consequently its air is heavily influenced by pollution from neighbouring districts.

Studies reveal that only 30-50% of Delhi’s air pollution originates within the city with the remaining 50-70%coming from outside. This means that a regional approach is essential to reduce air pollution in the city. FUrthermore, the main source of pollution in Delhi-NCR are the use of biomass for cooking, heating,and in micro and small industries as well as the burning of agricultural residues in the surrounding states.

These activities contribute over 50% of the total PM2.5 pollution, the most dangerous pollutant of all. An additional 30% of PM2.5 pollution comes from industries and power plants that rely on coal and other fossil fuels in other words more than 00% of OM2.5 pollution in Delhi-NCR is caused by solid fuel, particularly biomass and coal burning, with vehicles contributing less than 30%. This estimation does not include dust from roads, construction sites and barren land, which are also significant sources of particulate pollution.

Centre, States must collaborate

If Delhi is serious about improving air quality it must stop relying on ineffective superficial solution like odd-even schemes, construction bans, and drone-monitoring. These temporary fixes do more harm than good by damaging the economy without addressing the core issue. The real solution lies in collaboration between the central govt and the states-Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan-to confront pollution at its source.

This collaborative effort can be operationalised by creating a new governance framework and institution to implement a coordinated clean air action plan. This will require all states to relinquish some powers for the common good. Here’s how this can happen:

  1. Establish air pollution control zone: The central govt. should declare Delhi and its surrounding areas as an Air Pollution Control Zone. Withing this zone, all air pollution-related measures should be implemented in a coordinated manner. Ideally, this zone should cover the entire airshed, spanning a 300 km radius around Delhi. However, considering the existing institutional setup this zone could include Delhi-NCR and four additional districts in UP-Aligarh, Hathras, Mathura and Agra. This would encompass an area withing a radius of about 150 km, with a population of around 80mn. Although this would exclude key agricultural area in Punjab and Haryana where stubble burning is rampant, that issue could be addressed through specific programmes aimed at eliminating crop residue burning.
  2. Set up empowered agency: To implement a coordinated clean air action plan, a new empowered agency should be established. The agency should have representatives from both central and state govts and be headed by a senior secretary-level officer. It should have district offices and its own staff. In other words, it should be the nodal agency for air pollution control in the zone, superseding other central and state agencies, similar agencies exist elsewhere, such as the California Air Resources Board established in 1967 to tackle severe pollution in cities like Los Angeles. China has set up the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Regional Coordination Council to reduce pollution levels in Beijing. While the Centre has set up Commission for Air Quality Management for NCR and Adjoining Area (CAQM), it has not been very effective because it lacks resources, authority and a proactive action plan.
  3. Put in place real action plan Delhi’s air quality and India’s as a whole cannot improve without a rapid transition to clean energy for cooking heating, industry, transport and power generation. Similarly, pollution from land and agriculture, such as agricultural residue burning and desertification, will have to be addressed. These challenges will require bold schemes, dedicated resources and multi-year efforts to see tangible result. For this a genuine action plan needs to be developed.

But the question remains: Are the central and state govts up for the challenge?

 

A Green Urea Mission has economic, environmental benefit of $1 trillion over 25 years

The most viable path forward is to decontrol the urea sector and allow market competition, similar to other fertilisers.

Urea causes three major environmental problems: nitrogen pollution, ozone layer depletion, and climate change, largely because of its overuse and inefficient use.

One of the core priorities in this year’s Budget is “productivity and resilience in agriculture”. Under this, the government plans to promote natural farming, enhance the production of pulses, oil seeds, and vegetables, transform agricultural research, and prioritise climate-resilient crops. While these are important and much-needed goals, the road to productive and resilient agriculture goes through a reformed fertiliser sector, especially urea. Here’s why.

Since the Green Revolution, the nation has relied on urea to provide the nitrogen necessary for higher crop yields. Today, urea accounts for 56% of all fertilisers, and nearly 80% of all the nitrogenous fertilisers used. However, this over-reliance has a very high cost for the economy and environment. Urea causes three major environmental problems: nitrogen pollution, ozone layer depletion, and climate change, largely because of its overuse and inefficient use.

The overuse of urea in India has reached unsustainable proportions. While the recommended ratio of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium (NPK) fertilisers is 4:2:1, in 2022-23 the ratio of actual applications was 11.8:4.6:1. On top of this, the nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) is only 35%, compared to more than 50% in North America, and close to 80% in a few European countries. This means that only about 35% of the nitrogen in urea is used by crops; the rest is lost to the environment, leading to water and air pollution, and soil degradation.

Today, nitrate pollution of surface water and groundwater has reached alarming levels in many states of India, especially in Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. It is estimated that the cost of water pollution due to urea in India is about $30 billion yearly, more than the turnover of the urea industry. There is also widespread soil sickness due to imbalanced application of urea, which has been highlighted by the prime minister numerous times.

Today, nitrate pollution of surface water and groundwater has reached alarming levels in many states of India, especially in Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. It is estimated that the cost of water pollution due to urea in India is about $30 billion yearly, more than the turnover of the urea industry. There is also widespread soil sickness due to imbalanced application of urea, which has been highlighted by the prime minister numerous times.

The burden of urea on the economy is equally staggering. Urea subsidy has skyrocketed from less than 500 crore in 1980-81 to168,692 crore in 2022-23. Today, urea subsidy is about 85-90% of the cost of production; it used to be 20-40% of the production cost in the 1980s. The problem is compounded by the fact that this production is based on imported natural gas. In 2022-23, 84% of urea was produced from imported natural gas, and about 21% of total consumption was imported urea. So, nearly 90% of urea consumed in the country was either imported or produced using imported natural gas.

Urea, therefore, sits at the intersection of food, energy, and environmental security. Thus, decarbonising urea production to reduce reliance on imported natural gas and optimising consumption is critical to a resilient agricultural sector. The good news is that technological advancements in the manufacturing and application of urea can solve many of the above-mentioned problems.

Green Urea Mission

A detailed study by me and my colleagues found that it is possible to halve urea consumption in the next two decades from the current levels without compromising food production by strengthening existing policies such as promoting natural farming, enhancing NUE, and reducing the proportion of urea in nitrogenous fertilisers. Most importantly, it is economically viable to transition the existing urea manufacturing plants based on natural gas to green hydrogen and renewable energy by 2050. Our plant-by-plant modelling results show that green urea, produced from green hydrogen, is the cheapest route for India to produce urea from 2027 onwards. The average levelised cost of green urea between 2025 and 2050 is about $475/tonne compared to $540/tonne for grey urea produced from natural gas.

To achieve the desired results, the government will need to launch a Green Urea Mission, integrated with the National Green Hydrogen Mission, to transition the urea manufacturing sector to green urea. The mission should also have a 30:30:30 target for 2050: increasing the area under non-chemical farming to 30%, improving NUE by 30%, and reducing the proportion of urea in nitrogenous fertilisers by 30%.

If the Green Urea Mission is adopted, imports will be eliminated, subsidies will be reduced by 65%, and GHG emissions will decline by over 60%. Water and air pollution will also be significantly mitigated, and land degradation will be reversed. Most importantly, it will drive the growth in the two emerging industrial sectors — green hydrogen, and carbon capture and utilisation. The monetary value of these benefits is about $1 trillion in the next 25 years.

However, the mission’s success will depend on the extent of government control over the urea sector. Currently, the industry is highly regulated, has low profitability, and lacks incentives to innovate and modernise. The average age of urea plants is 30 years, with 45% of units over 40 years old, operating through renovation and modernisation (R&M). Our modelling results show that R&M is the most expensive way to produce urea.

The most viable path forward is to decontrol the urea sector and allow market competition, similar to other fertilisers. This would drive technological advancements, improve efficiency, and reduce prices. Such measures are necessary for building a future-ready agricultural sector.

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