Month: December 2023

A balanced consensus: Despite scepticism, UAE has delivered a balanced package on climate action at COP28

Posted on by Chandra Bhushan

These countries have historically drawn a red line, refusing to recognize the necessity of phasing down oil and gas to address the climate crisis.

It was perhaps preordained that an agreement on reducing fossil fuel production and consumption should have happened at the COP28 climate negotiations in Dubai, presided over by the CEO of one of the world’s largest oil companies. 

For three decades, the international community has avoided the direct mention of fossil fuels in climate agreements. The burning of coal, oil, and gas—the primary drivers of global warming—remained a spectre haunting negotiations, unacknowledged due to the staunch resistance from major oil and gas producers. These countries have historically drawn a red line, refusing to recognize the necessity of phasing down oil and gas to address the climate crisis.

However, COP28 shattered this status quo. The decision to transition away from fossil fuels, made in a petrostate and against the preferences of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), marks a significant leap towards acknowledging and addressing the root cause of climate change.

The agreement, aiming for a “just, orderly, and equitable transition away from fossil fuels,” is a nuanced wording to start reducing the production and consumption of fossil fuels. While it might not explicitly call for a phase-down or a phase-out, it sends an unmistakable message to the fossil fuel industry: the era of unchecked fossil fuel consumption is drawing to a close.

Yet, COP28 will be remembered for more than just this ground-breaking agreement. It also will be remembered for operationalising the Loss and Damage Fund on the very first day of the conference to support vulnerable developing countries in dealing with climate disasters. While the initial pledges to the fund remains about $800 million (with the host the United Arab Emirates contributing $100 million and the United States just $17.5 million), which is far less than what is needed, the operationalisation of the fund marks an important milestone in the climate justice movement. Dubai COP also enhanced the mitigation ambition by adopting the decision taken by the G20 under India’s presidency to triple the renewable energy capacity and double the energy efficiency improvements globally by 2030.

Missed opportunity

But not all went well. The shortcomings of the Global Stocktaking (GST) process were glaringly evident. This critical component, designed to evaluate global progress in addressing climate change, acknowledged the stark reality: current efforts are insufficient, steering us towards a worrying 2.7°C rise in global temperatures. However, the GST’s failure to assign clear responsibility and provide actionable guidance for both developed and developing countries to enhance ambition for the 2025 emission reduction pledges was a significant missed opportunity. Especially concerning was its failure in highlighting the unfulfilled commitments of developed nations and its apparent leniency towards China, the world’s largest emitter. This oversight not only undermines the process’s credibility but also stalls the momentum needed for meaningful global climate action.

The fact is that the developed countries have consistently not met any of their commitments on emissions reduction or financial support. They continue to invest in new fossil fuel infrastructure and emit more than their fair share. For instance, the US presently is the largest producer of oil and gas, producing nearly a quarter of global natural gas and 15% of world’s crude oil. The problem is there is no sign that it is phasing down fossil fuels as the Biden administration has recently approved new offshore oil and gas lease. The developed countries have also not met their collective finance obligations of proving $100 billion to the developing countries. Likewise, China’s GHG emissions, which is a quarter of the global emissions, needs to peak and reduce quickly to have any chance of meeting 1.5 OC target. Yet, GST failed to point out this crucial issue. The lessons from the first GST are that global climate action needs more than just pledges; it demands accountability, transparency, and equitable responsibility-sharing.

Business takes centre stage

COP28 marked a significant shift in the narrative of global climate conferences, not just in its scale but also in the composition of its attendees. This year’s conference, hosted in the vast expanses of Dubai’s Expo-City, shattered previous records with its 70,000 attendees and an extravagant half-a-billion-dollar budget. Such figures not only dwarfed the attendance of COP21, where the Paris Agreement was born, but also set a new precedent for the financial scale of climate conferences

What stood out most prominently was the robust presence of the business sector. Industry leaders, CEOs of major oil companies, and financiers were present in significant numbers, each bringing their perspectives to the climate table. This marked departure from the usual attendee list drew mixed reactions. Some critics likened the event to a trade show, voicing concerns over the influence of business interests and lobbyists in climate negotiations. However, this criticism overlooks a crucial aspect of climate action: the indispensable role of businesses.

The significant turnout of the business community reflects a growing recognition within the business world of the dual realities of threat and opportunity presented by the climate crisis. This shift in perception is crucial to realign capital—a move away from climate-damaging activities towards sustainable practices. The presence of businesses at COP28 suggests that this realignment may be starting to take shape.

For years, experts in sustainable development have advocated for a synergy between environmental concerns and business interests. COP28 can be seen as a tangible step towards this goal. It highlighted that the path to a sustainable future is not just the responsibility of governments and environmental activists but also of the corporate world.

Overall, the ‘UAE Consensus’ is a bold step forward. The decisions in it, and the scale at which they were showcased, reflect a growing recognition of the urgency of climate action and the need for substantive policy shifts—even in regions highly reliant on fossil fuels. Central to this shift is the emerging narrative of a just, orderly, and equitable transition away from fossil fuels—a theme that will increasingly dominate global discourse as countries internalise the imperative of shutting down fossil fuel establishments and diversifying their economies.

COP28: A reality check

Posted on by Chandra Bhushan

The 28th conference is a milestone event where the international community must confront the harsh truths about our collective (and differentiated) efforts to combat climate emergency.

There is always a hype built around the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference. Every Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is projected as a do-or-die meeting. Success is typically measured by the grandeur of new pledges, with the host country basking in the glow of any significant commitments. However, the 28th COP, which begins on 30 November in Dubai, is unique because it is not so much about new promises (though there will undoubtedly be some) but what happened to the old ones. The question to be answered in Dubai this December is: Have the countries kept their promise, and if not, what’s next. Dubai COP, therefore, is the first ‘official’ reality check of the climate crisis. It is also a reality check for the oil and gas industry and for the commitment of the rich world to support poor countries in dealing with climate disasters.

Climate balance sheet

The Paris Climate Accord, adopted in 2015 and signed by 195 countries, is a unique treaty. While it has set an international goal to keep temperature increases within 1.5-2.0°C, it cannot force countries to cut emissions. Countries pledge voluntary commitments to reduce emissions, called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), but these are not legally binding and there is no penalty for non-compliance. What the Paris Agreement has is a process to review pledges every five years, called ‘global stocktake’, to check where the world stands on climate action. The assumption is that disclosing information will put moral pressure on countries to enhance their commitments. The Dubai COP, therefore, is crucial because the results from the first-ever global stocktake will be discussed here. It will also be a test of the “moral pressure” hypotheses.

This year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its Sixth Assessment Report. It confirms that between 2011 and 2020 global surface temperatures were on average 1.09°C higher than they were from 1850 to 1900, with 1.07°C of this change being caused by human activity

The findings of the UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2023: A Broken Record is even graver. It notes an average temperature 1.8°C warmer than pre-industrial levels in September 2023. It further asserts that proceeding along the current path as determined by NDCs would have us on track for 3°C of climate change by the century’s end.

The preliminary findings of the global stocktake, published in the Synthesis Report of the Technical Dialogue of the Global Stocktake, clearly states the following:

“Global emissions are not in line with modelled global mitigation pathways consistent with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, and there is a rapidly narrowing window to raise ambition and implement existing commitments in order to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

While all assessments clearly show that the world is far off from the 1.5°C emissions trajectory, the big question is what kind of message from the global stocktake will be delivered in Dubai? Would it be greenwashing, or would it call out countries for vapid and unmet commitments? This is important because the outcome of the global stocktake will inform the next round of NDCs that countries need to declare by 2025. These commitments will be implemented through 2035 and thus would decide climate action for the next 10 years. So, the right messaging from COP28 is crucial to unequivocally indicate what countries, developed and developing, are required to do to put the world on track to meet the Paris Agreement goals in the next decade, a decade which will decide whether we will win or lose the climate battle.

Moment of truth for oil and gas

There is the elephant in the room and it is oil and gas (O&G). Often touted as a cleaner fuel than coal, oil and natural gas in 2022 accounted for 54 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions; coal accounted for 40 per cent. O&G is the developed world’s fuel of choice. In the European Union (EU), for instance, they contribute about 60 per cent of the total energy; coal’s contribution is 10 per cent. The reliance on O&G is even greater at 70 per cent in the US. In contrast, the dependence on coal is higher in emerging economies like India, China, South Africa and Indonesia.

Two years ago, at COP26 in Glasgow, an agreement was reached to phase down coal use. This concession was wrung from countries like India that depend heavily on coal to meet their energy demands. Despite repeated attempts, and support from the EU, no such commitments have been made for O&G, although it is abundantly clear that prolonged reliance upon such fuels is entirely incompatible with the 1.5°C goal. Dubai, however, is the perfect venue to make such a commitment.

The UAE is the world’s eighth largest petroleum producer and very much a petrostate. A recent Guardian exposé found that the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has the most investment in new petroleum production projects. The CEO of ADNOC is Sultan Al Jabar, the man that the UAE has selected to preside over COP28. So, the stage is set for what the executive director of the International Energy Agency has called a “moment of truth for the [global] oil and gas industry’s efforts on climate”. Would the developed world and the petrostates agree to the O&G phase-down, or would this be another lost opportunity?

A compassionate world

Perhaps the most critical issue for developing countries at COP28 is action on the Loss and Damage Fund, whose creation was agreed to last year at COP27 in Egypt. Recent years have seen a rapid acceleration of climate-related disasters. In 2022, there were 81 weather, climate and water-related disasters in Asia, of which over 83 per cent were flood and storm events. More than 5,000 people lost their lives, more than 50 million people were directly affected and there were more than US$ 36 billion in economic damages.[iv] So far in 2023, the world has witnessed extreme floods in China, forest fire in Canada, flash flood in Somalia, heatwaves in East Asia and extreme rainfall in India. These impacts are being borne disproportionately by smaller, poorer, and inevitably less developed countries, which are least responsible for the climate crisis. The Loss and Damage Fund was envisioned to channel funds from rich economies into those most vulnerable to climate disasters.

While the agreement to create the Loss and Damage Fund last year was undoubtedly momentous, we will see whether this vehicle will be given any teeth in Dubai. If it is left toothless and penniless, the Global South should accept that the North has no intention of taking any responsibility for its historic emissions and has no serious plans to help those in need.

The commitments made in Dubai on the Loss and Damage Fund and action on Oil&Gas will determine whether the goals of the UNFCCC can be met. Will developing countries be made to bear alone the costs of adapting to a rapidly warming planet while the rich burn gasoline and natural gas and utter empty platitudes? Or will the developed world finally take responsibility for its historical emissions?

In essence, COP28 isn’t just another gathering; it’s a milestone event where the international community must confront the harsh truths about our collective (and differentiated) efforts to combat climate emergency.

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