Month: April 2022

Coal consumption in India : We are already late on fair green transition

Posted on by Chandra Bhushan

There is no contradiction between increasing coal consumption in India and implementing a just transition in the coal districts and states.

On March 28, 2022, an extremely important and unstarred question was asked by Priyanka Chaturvedi, member, Rajya Sabha, which was replied to by Pralhad Joshi, Union minister of coal. It is at the heart of the energy transition debate in India. The question is whether India should start planning and implementing a just energy transition now or wait until coal consumption starts declining? It is a fundamental question, and I will quote it verbatim:

Priyanka Chaturvedi: Will the Minister of Coal be pleased to state:

(a) whether Government has prepared any roadmap for districts having a coal-centric economy such as Korba, etc. in light of country’s commitment towards energy transition?

(b) whether in such districts (coal-centric economy) closure of mines and industries will have severe socio-economic consequences, major being unemployment for the unskilled workers?

(c) whether Government has initiated any scalable steps to reduce the dependency of other economic sectors such as agriculture, forestry, manufacturing and service for their growth in these districts? and (d) if so, the details thereof?

Pralhad Joshi: (a) & (b): In India, energy transition away from coal is not happening in foreseeable future. Although there will be push for renewable/non-fossil-based energy, but share of coal in the energy basket is going to remain significant in years ahead. Coal demand in the country is yet to peak. The draft Economic Survey 2021-22 projects coal demand in the range of 1.3-1.5 billion tonnes by 2030, an increase of 63 per cent from the current demand. Thus, as of now there is no scenario of energy transition away from coal affecting any stakeholders involved in coal mining. (c) & (d): Does not arise in view of above. 

The minister’s reply was correct that India’s coal demand is growing, and will continue to grow, at least in this decade. But his response that the energy transition in the country is not affecting any stakeholders involved in coal mining needs further examination.

There should be no doubt that an energy transition, propelled mainly by the Centre’s ambitious renewable energy targets, is underway in the country. These targets have real implications for coal consumption. For example, if the latest targets—installing 500 GW of non-fossil energy capacity and meeting 50% of the country’s electricity requirement from renewables—materialises, then coal consumption in the power sector will peak by 2030 and significantly decline over the next two decades. Modelling studies show that India’s electricity sector can be coal-free by 2050, with little impact on growth or jobs.

But it is important to understand that the need to develop a just transition roadmap for coal-dependent districts and states is tied not just to the national coal demand scenario. It is, in fact, more related to the sub-national situation, as the reality of coal mining in states and districts differs from the national picture. In other words, while coal will continue to meet a significant, but declining, proportion of India’s energy demand in the next two-three decades, in many districts of the country, most coal mines will close much earlier, leading to socio-economic disruptions. This will happen due to two reasons. First, a majority of coal mines in the country are loss-making and on the verge of closure. While these loss-making mines are spread across India, most of them are concentrated in Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and West Bengal. In Jharkhand, for example, of the 146 mines run by the Central Coalfields Limited (CCL) and Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL), 103 mines are loss-making.

Overall, 75% of Coal India Limited’s (CIL) production and almost all profits come from just 35 large mines; the remaining mines are low-producing and largely unprofitable. These loss-making mines collectively produce less than 10% coal, employ 40-45% of the workforce, and incurred an aggregated loss of Rs 16,000 crores in 2018-19—about the same as the company’s annual net profit. Going ahead, CIL plans to reach 1 billion tonnes of coal production primarily from “50-odd high-yielding mining projects” and close unprofitable mines. This potentially means shutting down 300-odd mines. But all these mines need to be closed with proper closure and socio-economic transition plans. In other words, just transition plans need to be developed urgently for all these loss-making mines and regions to ensure that hundreds of thousands of formal and informal workers and millions of people dependent on these mines are provided timely alternatives.

Second, coal reserves are also getting exhausted in big coal-producing districts. Take the case of Korba, India’s largest coal-producing district. Nearly 95% of Korba’s coal comes from just three large open cast mines, which will exhaust its resources by 2040-45. The rest of the mines are already on the verge of closure. So, in the next 20 years, Korba, which is entirely dependent on coal for jobs and growth, will have to look for alternatives. But Korba is not unique; similar situations exist in many other coal districts. These mining districts will need a just transition plan to avoid sudden economic disruption and social upheaval.

So, there is no contradiction between increasing coal consumption till 2030 and implementing a just transition plan in the coal districts and states. In fact, we are already late in the process. Experiences around the world show that a planned energy transition takes time. For example, Germany’s Ruhr valley started implementing transition in the 1960s and closed its last coal mine in 2018. So, it took six decades for Ruhr to implement a just transition, but the result is for everyone to see. Today, Ruhr is a hub of green industries and service sector jobs.

We must also start planning and implementing a just transition in many Ruhrs in India and not wait for coal consumption to decline. Early planning will help these districts and states to invest in infrastructure and attract businesses, create alternative jobs, prepare the future workforce, and simultaneously substitute and diversify their source of revenue. The choice is in our hands – either we can start planning for this transition and secure a just outcome for everyone, or we can wait and watch till disruptions and chaos start.

How India could soon have days so hot it will impact work

Posted on by Chandra Bhushan

We have entered a new age of heat extremes. Concrete and glass-heavy urban buildings are a major hazard

India is searing. Large parts of the country are in the grips of unbearable heat and heatwaves. March this year was the hottest March on record, and March-April has witnessed a record number of heatwaves. Delhi has recorded eight heatwave days in April so far, and the maximum temperature in parts of the city has already hit 43-45°C, which is 5-7°C above normal. As a result, schools in the capital are struggling to maintain regular timings, and workers engaged in manual labour have practically stopped working during the daytime.

But it is not supposed to be like this in March and April; we should expect such heat in May and June – the year’s hottest months. So, is this a freak year? Is this temperature anomaly unexpected? The answer is no.

Both temperatures and heatwaves have been increasing perceptibly since the 1980s. Each of the last four decades has been progressively warmer than the decade that preceded it. The past decade (2011-20) was the hottest since records began in 1901, and 11 out of 15 warmest years were between 2007 and 2021. Likewise, the heatwave days have also increased every decade since 1980. In addition, the hotspots of intense heatwaves have expanded. They now engulf a large part of the country, hitting areas that were not prone to extreme heat events in the past, like Himachal Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.

In fact, there has been an alarming increase in severe heatwaves in southern India. The problem is that south India also experiences high humidity. This means that during the pre-monsoon period, when the humidity is usually high, a heatwave could push the “wet-bulb” temperature (that measures the combined effect of temperature and humidity) beyond 35°C, which few humans can tolerate for a long time because their bodies can’t cool themselves.

According to the latest IPCC report, the intensity and frequency of heatwaves will increase with every increment of warming. For instance, at 1.5°C of global warming (we are at 1.1°C presently), there will be more severe heatwaves and longer warm seasons; at 2°C, “deadly” heatwaves would frequently cross the limits of human survivability.

The report also points out that the Indian subcontinent will be hardest hit by deadly heatwaves. In a worst-case scenario, the number of “climatically stressful” workdays (when workers will have difficulty working outside) will increase to 250 per year.

This means that for 8-9 months a year, there will be a severe impact on worker output, which will have a high cost on the economy. In essence, the IPCC reports point to heatwaves becoming a major calamity in the coming years. The question is, what can we do about this?

  1. First and foremost, mitigation is the best adaptation. Limiting warming to 1.5°C will restrict the number, extent and severity of heat extremes. While the 1.5°C target is becoming challenging every passing year, the latest IPCC report shows we have a small window of opportunity to meet this goal with rapid, deep and immediate GHG emission reductions in all sectors.

The good news, as the IPCC report points out, is that several mitigation options, notably solar and wind energy, energy efficiency, the greening of urban infrastructure, demand-side management, improved forest and land management, and reduced food waste are cost-effective and are good for development and jobs.

 

  • Second, the urban heat island effect increases the severity of heatwaves. City centres are now a few degrees warmer than the hinterlands because of the large amounts of heat emitted from our buildings, roads, factories and cars. For example, while air conditioning cools inside, it throws heat outside, increasing the outside temperature.

To combat outside heat, we are installing more and more ACs, thereby unleashing a vicious cycle of spiralling heat island effect. We can break this cycle only by building cities that cool themselves. This means more open spaces, green areas and water bodies, and more energy-efficient green buildings. This leads to the third point.

We are building hothouses and not habitable buildings. Most modern buildings are built with too much concrete, glass and poor shading and ventilation, making them prone to overheating. Even the affordable houses that the government is building for the poor under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana are not habitable on certain days of the year because they are too hot to live in.

Many of these affordable houses will become uninhabitable as the number of days with high temperatures increases due to global warming. Therefore, our building bye-laws, urban planning guidelines and construction technologies must be radically changed to adapt to the rising heat.

  • Lastly, India needs a new heat code. Many regions of the country now experience wet-bulb temperatures exceeding 31°C during certain parts of the year, which is dangerous for manual labour. However, we are not declaring such days as heatwaves because our guidelines are based on dry bulb temperature. Therefore, we need a heat code that outlines the criteria for declaring heatwaves based on wet-bulb temperature. It should also prescribe SOPs for heatwave emergencies, such as work-hour limits and relief measures in public places and hospitals.

Heatwave is theoretical discomfort for some of us who move from an airconditioned home to an air-conditioned car to an air-conditioned office. But it is a matter of life and death for a poor person dependent on manual labour and living in a hothouse in an urban slum or a village. India, therefore, needs a heat action plan that saves the majority from hot extremes.

The writer is CEO, International Forum for Environment Sustainability and Technology (iFOREST)

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